First in Series Sale

Now through Christmas, the first in each of my five fiction series is on sale for 99 cents in e-book!

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Man-From-Empire-Amazon-medium-May-2019.jpg

A duel in the shadows as echoes of an ancient war wash up onto a new planet!

Life in the Empire has finally settled down. The last of the ston rebels have taken amnesty, and re-joined civilization – or have they?

A massive terrorist attack kills millions and the trail leads the investigator straight to a remote world with no known Imperial contact – a world known to its inhabitants as Earth

Amazon Link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00FDLKNXU

Books2Read link: https://www.books2read.com/u/4AwOxJ

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is PTG-Amazon-thumb-june-2023-1.jpg

It started innocently enough. I was the engineer on one of Earth’s first explorations beyond the Solar System, using borrowed Imperial technology. Captured on a hostile planet, I have to make a plan to escape. And then I discovered my real mistake

It started innocently enough. Joe was the engineer on one of Earth’s first explorations beyond the Solar System, using borrowed Imperial technology. Captured on a hostile planet, he has to make a plan for his crew to escape – and then he discovers his real mistake!

He becomes a Missionary of Civilization on a primitive planet caught between massive empires – and the enemy has to think it’s all native ingenuity!

Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01E1PZL5S

Books2Read link: https://www.books2read.com/u/bPJxR7

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Invention-of-Motherhood-thumb.jpg

Pregnancy is dangerous in the Empire

For thousands of years, Imperial women have used artificial gestation. But Grace was born on barbarian, pre-contact Earth. She can’t call herself a mother without doing it the hard way at least once.

Grace has married into one of the most important families in the Empire – and Imperial politics are deadly at the top.

Despite the risks, she discovers that there are advantages, both to herself and to her unborn baby.

The Empire will never be quite the same again.

Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B075X4L8ZJ

Books2Read link: https://www.books2read.com/u/bzaevD

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Fountains-cover-thumb.jpg

The first thing Alexan knew was standing over an impossible corpse with an ichor-stained sword.

Exiled from home for reasons of politics and health, he has to orient himself in a new home, but he still has the skills he was ‘born’ with, skills which make him a wizard in his new homeland. A blasted, sterile cavern has many portals, but the one he chooses leads to the top of a huge tree, the source of magical power for an entire world.

Power is plentiful in Aescalon, but those who have it want to keep it all for themselves, and the arrival of a new wizard upsets the balance. It seems everyone who doesn’t attack immediately wants something from him – including a cursed demi-goddess desperate to escape her fate who thinks Alexan may be able to help her.

But Alexan can’t even help himself until he unravels the secrets of The Fountains of Aescalon

Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07C5H3Z4Q

Books2Read link: https://www.books2read.com/u/bwWMgY

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Gates-artwork-small.jpg

Mark Jackson’s problems begin when he wakes up with his ex-wife’s mummified corpse.

Seven years ago, she walked out on him and vanished. Now she’s back desperate for help. She claims a cult cured her cancer. Now they want to kill her.

Sceptical, Mark agrees to help. But when she knocks on his door, she looks like a teenager. They patch things up and one thing leads to another…

In the morning, she’s a mummified corpse and LAPD thinks Mark did it. The solution to his problems can only be found in The Gates to Faerie

Amazon link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07QBDL8QK

Books2Read link: https://books2read.com/b/47xV9N

Paragraph

Start with the basic building block of all narrative.

Color

Typography

Font size

Size

Dimensions

All options are currently hidden

Border

All options are currently hidden

  • Paragraph

Notifications

1 result found, use up and down arrow keys to navigate.

Problems with Multiple Mortgages

“We have several rental properties that we own (more than 10). When we were younger, before we got married, we both moved around a lot and bought houses, moved, stayed a year or so and did it again. I of course don’t have to mention why we did this (no money down, low fixed rates, etc.) However, now I am running into a dilema. I am finding that no one wants to refi or do purchase money loans now that we have 10+ mortgages. I need good rates to make my cash flow work. I have recently herniated one of my discs and have been out of work for almost 3 months, so I need to take money out of our house that is paid for, but no one wants to do it. Any suggestions on how to get around that? My credit scores range from 763-805, so that is defintaely not the problem. Any advice would be greatly appreciated as I am down to crunch time in needing to get some money.”

Bad situation.

The reason for this problem is that whereas nationally, vacancy rates are much lower, and here in high cost California they are only running about 4 percent, the bank will only allow 75 percent of rent to be used in the calculation of whether you qualify or do not. Furthermore, on the negative side they charge the full payment, taxes, and homeowner’s insurance, as well as maintenance. Now, here in the high cost areas of California if there is a rental property bought within the last three years that’s turning a profit, I’d like to know about it. But for properties purchased several years ago here, and nationally in many markets, there are people making money hand over fist on rental properties whom the bank believes must be cash destitute. There is no way they will qualify for a mortgage loan without tweaking something.

There are two main ways to solve the problem.

10 mortgages (assuming you still own the properties) gives one serious status as a real estate investor. The loan should then be able to be done. Not necessarily A paper, but subprime with that kind of a credit score and a prepayment penalty will give them comparable – perhaps even better rates. Furthermore, on investment properties, there’s a minimum of about a 1.5 point to 2 point hit on the loan costs just due to the fact that it is investment property. So refinancing an investment property is not something you want to do often. If you can’t go 10 years between refinances, something is probably wrong. Especially given the extremely narrow spread between long term loans like the 30 year fixed rate loan and shorter term fixed rate hybrids, for investment property a 30 year fixed rate loan is likely the way to go.

But the key part is “real estate investor.”

This is a business. You’re going to need an accountant to attest to the fact that you’ve been operating this business at least two years. But that gives you standing as at least partially self-employed as the operator of a real estate investment business.

Which gives you an out to do stated income, possibly even A paper. You’re going to have to state that you earn more income than you do. Given the environment today, a good loan officer looking to cover themselves is going to want you to acknowledge that you can make whatever the payment is really going to be. I don’t care if you need $6000 per month to qualify and you tell me that you make $12,000 per month, or $120,000. Any time you are looking at stated income, you’re looking at a situation that is vulnerable to abuse, both from the point of view of a consumer being put into a loan they really cannot afford, and from the point of view of a bank lending money based upon a credit score and source of income that really may not be there. This one is especially vulnerable to the latter concern in the current market, and I would likely take a real careful look at any bank statements that pass through my hands to make certain it’s not patently disprovable. If it makes a borrower uneasy, well half of the reason is to protect them. Stated Income may be colloquially called “liar’s loans”, but that is not what they are intended for, and in this case you are intentionally overstating income in order to qualify under unrealistic underwriting rules. Furthermore, not every lender will permit this.

The second approach is NINA – a No Income, No Asset loan, also known as “no ratio” – meaning no debt to income ratio. These are much easier to do for the loan officer, as they’re completely driven off credit score, but carry higher rates. Nor do you have to state a higher income than you make, as there is no debt to income ratio computation on these loans. On the other hand, especially if you’re talking about your personal residence, as long as you’re in a low loan to value situation, you may get a better rate from an A paper lender without a prepayment penalty, as opposed to doing a subprime loan with a pre-payment penalty.

There is serious potential for abuse in this situation, even if it is theoretically allowed under the rules. So be very upfront about what is going on with anyone you come into contact with. You, as a loan applicant, should never be dealing directly with the underwriter – as an anti-fraud measure, every lender I’m aware of prohibits it and cancels any loan in process if you happen to interact with the underwriter. But this is allowed by the nature of stated income and NINA loans. Self-employed people and commissioned salesfolk have to file taxes, also, and tax forms are the preferred method for documenting income. Nonetheless, because there are significant deductions that would not otherwise be allowed due to the fact that you’re paying your bills with “before tax” money whereas most folks are paying with “after tax” money, it does make sense to do it this way. Provided you don’t talk yourself into a loan that you cannot really afford.

Caveat Emptor

Negative Amortization Loan Issues on Investment Property

Read your article on negative arm loans, and for the person who only owns a residence and most real estate investors it will not work. I own several properties, and the parcel to be refinanced is ocean front…so is going up in value more than the negative arm would be when refinanced after prepay penalty period. Cash out would be used to pay off other mortgages, thereby increasing my cash flow for a few years. Does your advice against negative arms apply in my situation?


I believe he’s referring to this article.

This is actually an excellent question, and the answer is … maybe. At least it is not a clear “no”, unlike so much of what the Negative Amortization loan is misused for. This largely goes beyond the scope of what I’m trying to do with this site, but I’ll take a swing at it.

The fact is that I can construct a scenario that goes either way, and the implicitly high appreciation rate you mention has surprisingly little to do with it.

The positive is that your other loans are paid off! To use Orwell-speak, this is maximum plusgood.

The negative is that this loan now includes every dollar you previously owed. Furthermore, there may be negative tax connotations to the fact that all of your interest expense now comes from one property, as opposed to being able to directly match it against individual properties with individual incomes. If interest against one property is greater than the income for that one property, you may not be able to take it all. I’m not clear on the implications of the tax code here (and I’d like to be educated), so consult with a CPA or Enrolled Agent.

Furthermore, your new loan won’t magically create any “lake” of dollars. In order to pay off the other loans, it’s going to have to be the size of all of them combined, plus any prepayment penalties, plus all costs of doing the loan, plus potential pre-payment penalties for the Negative Amortization loan.

Now consider:

If you make payment option one (the “nominal” or “as if your rate was 1 percent” payment), you are allowing compound interest to work against you. This is the force Einstein described as “the most powerful force in the universe”, and it’s working on the whole dollar amount of every single one of your current loans and then some.

Ouch.

No matter which payment you’re making, the rate you are being charged, (aka “what the money is costing you”) is not fixed, but variable month to month. As far as most commercial property loans are concerned, this is no big deal. They’re pretty much variable at “prime plus” anyway. However, I expect the MTA and COFI (upon which Negative Amortization loans are based) to continue rising as government borrowing increases, whereas I’m not so certain about prime, which for most banks is comparatively high by real and historical standards.

With all this said, it’s still very possible to construct winning scenarios, depending upon a variety of factors. You mention short-term cash flow, and that is certainly one possible justification. If short-term cash flow is all you’re looking for, and the money it will cost you later on is no big deal because you’re planning to buy down the prepayment penalty and sell in a short period of time. Yeah, you’ve added to your balance but you’ve got plenty of equity and you’d rather have a few hundred per month now than multiple thousands later. Think of it as a cash advance.

One of the things that negative amortization loans can do for you is make it easier for you to qualify for more loans on more properties. Because in loan qualification, the bank will only give you credit for 75 percent of prospective rents while dinging you for the full value of payments, taxes, fees, maintenance, etcetera, this can make it much harder to qualify than is realistic, given that in many markets the vacancy factor is less than five percent. You actually pay more, but you’re not obligated to. Particularly because many people own investment properties for the capital gain rather than the income potential (i.e. price speculation, rather than monthly income). On the other hand, just because a property has been appreciating rapidly does not mean it will continue to do so, beachfront or not. The market nationwide is entering a very different mode than it’s been in for the last few years. I can point to beachfront property here locally that’s lost a lot of value since early 2005. Price speculation is great when it works (which is most of the time), but is really scary when it doesn’t. It’s a reward for risk-taking, so don’t lose sight of the fact that it is a risk.

One other factor of doing this is that it can cause taxes on a sale to exceed net proceeds. Suppose you intend to sell the beachfront property in a couple of years, and it doesn’t gain any more ground from where it is right now. Many properties were bought for less than 10% of their current value. Let’s say you bought for ten percent of current value. If your loan is for eighty percent, and you pay six to seven percent in sale costs, you’re getting ninety-three to ninety four percent of value, leaving a net of thirteen or fourteen. But you owe long term capital gains of eighty-three or eighty-four times twenty percent – almost seventeen percent! This can force you to take another loan out, against one of those “free and clear” properties lest you owe the IRS penalties. Yes, 1031 and even a potential personal residence exclusion can modify or nullify this, but so can all the depreciation you may have taken over the years, and if you intended to 1035 the property that would tend to contra-indicate any reasons you had for the negative amortization loan.

Now, to be honest, my experience with commercial loans is limited, and I’ve never done a negative amortization commercial loan. What few clients I’ve had in that market have had different goals in mind, and being as I’m a sustainability type loan officer, I tend to attract sustainability type clients, where Negative Amortization loans are more indicative of a speculative (“risk taker”) type. I understand what’s going on, but it isn’t my primary approach to the issues. There are circumstances on investment properties where, unlike your primary residence, it can be very appropriate. Unfortunately, without full specifics, including time schedules, goals, reasons for holding investments, other investments, risk tolerances, etcetera, it’s difficult to tell if yours is one of them. My experience in dealing with people is telling me one thing, my sense of ledger evaluation is hinting at a different answer. But I hope I’ve given you a clear idea of the kinds of issues you need to look at with professional help.

Caveat Emptor

Mutual Funds: What They Are and How They Work

For being the most popular investments in the country, many people have a “black box” picture of mutual funds. Money goes in one end and more money (usually) comes out the other.

Mutual companies in general are a very old concept. The Egyptians had them in ancient times, mostly for insurance purposes. For one time investments, they go back at least to europe in the middle ages. But it wasn’t until 1924 in the United States that somebody had the bright idea of making it a continuing thing, an actual business planned around the continual making of communal investments. (The very first mutual fund is still going, by the way, as a member of one of the bigger advisory fund families.) Regulation of mutual funds and similar entities dates to the Investment Company Act of 1940.

The basic concept is this: A group of people get together and pool their investment money, and invest it as a group. They all own a portion of the entire pool of investments.

This buys a lot. It buys economies of scale, as the costs to trade 10,000 shares are significantly less than 100 times the cost of trading 100 shares, and way less than 10,0000 times the cost of trading a single share. It buys instant diversification, as the group has plenty of money to split among enough investments so that the failure of any one will not unduly hurt them. It buys (theoretically) top tier money management, because there’s enough money in the group such that the cost to pay such a person isn’t prohibitive, as it is to average investors on their own. Furthermore, there is no need to purchase an even number, or even an integer number of shares, so you can invest any amount that is at least whatever minimum the group agrees upon. You can typically buy mutual fund shares in increments as small as one one thousandth of a share, so if you want to invest $507.63 exactly, that’s not a problem as long as it’s above the minimum investment, or minimum additional investment, whichever is applicable.

Because there are costs to the group associated with adding a new investor or making a new investment, they do have rules about minimum initial investment and minimum additional investment. For some “no-load” funds, the minimum investment can be several thousand dollars. For advisers funds, where there is a sales charge, the minimums are typically smaller, something along the lines of $250 or $500, as the sales charges discourage short term trading. Indeed, some of the advisers funds will accept initial investments as small as $25, as long as you agree to monthly investments.

The math of mutual fund share price is mostly important to the accountants, not the investors. Initially, it’s quite arbitrary. There is a given pool of investment dollars, and the group, or investment company, decides that share price is going to be $10.00 or $25.00 or whatever. Note that, with mutual funds, there is no practical difference between $1000 buying one hundred $10 shares or forty $25 shares. It’s just a matter of record-keeping. There is a minor record keeping argument for setting initial share price low, but it’s mostly important for record keeping.

During each trading day, the number of shares is kept constant. Whether or not there is any trading activity, any new investment, or any redemption, the number of shares stays constant until the end of the trading day. At the end of the day, the fund computes the value of the underlying investment, divides by the number of shares for that trading day, and that becomes the share price. At this point, the end of the trading day, any redemptions or new investments take effect If someone wants to redeem a given number of shares, the company sends them share price times number of shares. If someone wants to redeem a given amount of money, the fund divides that by the share price and redeems that number of shares. If someone invested money in the fund that day, the purchase takes effect at the end of day price. You can buy a given number of shares (providing you sent them at least enough money) or, more commonly, you can invest a certain number of dollars, which will be divided by the share price to calculate the number of shares you bought. For these reasons, among others, short-term trading mutual funds of any sort is a pointless way to waste money, and Exchange Traded Funds are a method for extorting money from the gullible (If you must day trade, S&P and similar option based alternatives are superior). Mutual funds are for investors who intend to hold for a while.

As time goes on, there are several sorts of events that influence share price. First off, that the underlying pool of investments fluctuates in value, going up and going down with supply and demand. This happens whether that investment is bonds, stocks, or both. Bond prices and stock prices change every day, with supply and demand and market conditions. Always, within a given day, the number of shares in the fund is constant. At the end of the day, the effects of the market and any trading the fund did are taken into account, and the end of day share price is computed, and all of the day’s transactions in shares take place at the end of the market day. In order to be processed by the fund on that day, any orders to buy or redeem shares must be received by the fund prior to market close, or they get the next day’s share price. There have been people criminally convicted and sent to jail on this point, for gaming the share price.

The second thing that happens to influence share price is income. Every so often, one of the fund’s underlying investments will pay a dividend (stocks) or make an interest payment (bonds). Each one of the fund’s shares (not shareholders!) is entitled to an equal share of this money. Say that the fund gets a million dollars over the course of a certain period, and there are ten million shares outstanding. Each of the shares will get a payout of approximately ten cents. I say approximately, because there are other concerns involved. Now, because this money has been received over a period of time, and until the payout was included in the overall value of the fund, the price per share will be reduced by whatever the payout is (and all funds hold at least a small amount of cash). So if the price per share was $15.00 before a $.10 per share payout, it will be $14.90 afterwards. Some shareholders will have elected to receive income in cash, and some will have elected to have it automatically reinvested (each share’s payout purchasing 1/149th of a share in this example), but in either case, this has tax consequences for the investors unless they made their investment from within a tax deferred account such as an IRA (among many others), and the money remains within that account.

The third thing that has an impact upon share price is capital gains (and losses!). If the fund invested $1 million by buying 50,000 shares of ABC company at $20 per share, and ABC company goes to $30 per share, the value of those shares has increased to $1.5 million. So long as the fund management holds onto those 50,000 shares of ABC, it’s just a paper increase, and if there are ten million shares of the fund outstanding, that means that each share of the fund effectively owns fifteen cents of ABC, and five cents of that is an unrealized gain.

But let’s say that the share price of ABC goes to $50 per share, and the fund management decides that it’s time to sell those 50,000 shares. Now they sold for $2.5 million, and of that, they cost $1 million to buy (This is usually stated by saying that those 50,000 shares had a basis of one million dollars) But the remaining 1.5 million dollars is profit for the fund. If there are still ten million shares outstanding, that’s a 15 cent per share capital gain. Assuming there are no other capital gains or losses for the period, the fund declares a fifteen cent capital gain. Just like income received, if the share price was $15.15 before, it will be $15.00 after. Some investors will have chosen a payout, and some will have chosen to reinvest. The ones who have chosen a payout will get a check of fifteen cents multiplied by however many shares of the fund they own, while the ones who have chosen to reinvest will each get one one hundredth of a share per share they already own. Whichever they have chosen, unless the investment comes from and remains within a tax deferred account such as an IRA, there will be tax consequences for the individual investors.

Most mutual funds are not “stand-alone” investment companies. They are members of a family of funds, theoretically investing only in a particular investment niche. This allows the entire fund family to amalgamate their marketing efforts and administration. Particularly with advisory funds, most investors should find a single fund family that meets their needs to stay within, in order to minimize sales charges. The family may or may not have input as to a given fund’s management team. Nonetheless, each fund has its own board of directors, and there is not usually anything legally binding a particular fund (“investment company”) to a particular fund family if the investors and fund management really want to leave.

Now there are some potential weaknesses of mutual funds. The fact that there are tax consequences for investors is not an issue while still holding most other sorts of investments, at least not to the same degree. So most mutual funds find themselves with incentives to do something, or not do something they would otherwise have done, due to tax consequences to their investors. Furthermore, most mutual funds are way too dilute. The optimum number of investments, according to mathematical models, is between twenty and thirty, and given that the overwhelming majority of investors who invest in mutual funds have invested in several different ones, a smaller number of investments per fund is more appropriate than a larger number. It being that time of year right now, I just got a statement from one of my funds listing over 400 holdings. There are reasons I continue to invest in that fund and that family, but I’m certainly not happy about that aspect.

Nonetheless, even with these weaknesses, a mutual fund’s ability to deliver immediate diversification, economies of scale, and professional management with only a modest investment, well within the capabilities of beginning investors, are excellent reasons why most investors should strongly consider them as an investment vehicle, especially starting out. That they are also very liquid, and not subject to large purchases and redemptions significantly influencing share prices, can give even a large investor with “high risk” predilections reason to park money there for a time.

Caveat Emptor

Loan Qualification Standards – Loan to Value Ratio

Many folks have no idea how qualified they are as borrowers.

There are two ratios that, together with credit score, tell how qualified you are for a loan.

The more important of these two ratios is Debt-to-Income ratio, usually abbreviated DTI. The article on that ratio is here. The less important, but still critical, ratio is Loan to Value, abbreviated LTV. This is the ratio of the loan divided by the value of the property. For properties with multiple loans, we still have LTV, usually in the context of the loan we are dealing with right now, but there is also comprehensive loan to value, or CLTV, the ratio of the total of all loans against the property divided by the value of the property.

Note that for instances where you may be borrowing more than eighty percent of the value of the home, splitting your loan into two pieces, a first and a second, is usually going to save you money. (See here for an example)

The maximum loan to value ratio you’re going to qualify for is largely dependent upon your credit score. The higher your credit score, the lower your minimum equity requirement, which translates to lower down payment in the case of a mortgage.

Credit score, in mortgage terms, is the middle of your credit scores from the 3 major bureaus. If you have an 800, a 480, and a 500, the middle score, and thence your credit score, is 500. If the third score is 780 instead of 500, your score is 780. If you only have two scores, the lenders will use the lower of the two. If you have only one score, most lenders will not accept the loan. Now, I’ve never seen scores that divergent, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen. Usually, the three scores are within twenty to thirty points, and a 100 point divergence is fairly unusual. Despite what you may have heard or seen in advertising, according to Fair Issacson the national median credit score is 720. See here for details.

In order to do business with a regulated lender, you need a minimum credit score of 500. There are tricks to the trade, but if you don’t have at least one credit score of 500 or higher, you’re going to a hard money lender or family member.

Now, exactly what the limits are for a given credit score is variable, both with time and lender, even when you get into A paper. Subprime lenders will go higher than A paper, but the rates will also be higher. Nonetheless, there are some broad guidelines. At 500, only subprime lenders will do business with you, and they will generally only go up to about 75 percent of the value of the home. A few will go to 80 percent, but this is not a good situation to be in.

Currently, at about 580 credit score, you can still find subprime lenders willing to lend you 100 percent of the value of the home, providing you can do a full documentation loan. At 580 is also where Alt-A and A minus lenders start being willing to do business with you, although they won’t go 100 percent until higher credit scores.

At 620, the A paper lenders start being willing, in theory, to consider your full documentation conforming loan. They won’t do cash out refinances or “jumbo” loans until a minimum of 640, but they will do both purchase money and rate term at 620 or higher. They may not go 100 percent of value until 680, but they will go about eighty or maybe higher.

At 640 is where subprime lenders will start considering 100 percent loans for self-employed stated income borrowers. Not too long ago, I could find these down to 600, but the lenders have been raising these requirements of late. For w2 stated income (essentially, people who get a salary and don’t want to document income) the minimum for 100 percent is about 660 now. Mind you, if you can document enough income, it is in your interest to do so.

660 is where A paper will start considering conforming stated income loans. They may not go above 75 percent of value, but they won’t just reject you out of hand. At 680, they will consider jumbo stated income.

Now, it is to be noted that just because you can get a loan for only so much equity, it does not follow that you should. Whereas the way the leverage equation works does tend to favor the smaller down payment, at least when prices are increasing, it can also sink your cash flow. So if the property is a stretch for you financially, it can be a smarter move to look at less expensive properties to purchase. I have seen many people recently who stretched to buy “too much house” only to lose everything because they bought right at market peak with a loan they could not keep up. Many of these not only lost every penny they invested, but also owe thousands of dollars in taxes due to debt forgiveness when the lender wrote off their loan.

There are other factors that are “deal-breakers”, but so long as your debt to income ratio is within guidelines and your loan to value is within these parameters, you stand an excellent chance of getting a loan. All too often, questionable loan officers will feed supremely qualified people a line about how they shouldn’t shop around because they’re a tough loan and “you don’t want to drive your credit score down.” First off, the National Association of Mortgage Brokers successfully lobbied congress to do consumers a major favor on that score a few years back. All mortgage inquiries within a fourteen day period count as the same one inquiry. Second, the vast majority of the time it’s just a line of bull to keep people from finding out how overpriced they are or to keep you from consulting people who may be able to do it on a better basis. I’ve talked to people with 750 plus credit scores, twenty years in their line of work, and a twenty percent down payment who had been told that, when the truth is that a monkey could probably get them a loan! By shopping around, you will save money and get more information about the current status of the market.

Caveat Emptor

Loan Qualification Standards – Debt to Income Ratio

Many people have no clue how qualified they are as buyers, or borrowers.

There are two ratios that, together with the credit score, determine how qualified someone is for a loan.

The first, and by far the more important, is debt to income ratio, usually abbreviated DTI. This is a measurement of how easy it will be for you to repay the loan given your current income level.

The debt to income ratio is measured by dividing total monthly mandatory outlays to service debt into your gross monthly income. Yes, due to the fact that the tax code gives you a deduction for mortgage interest, you qualify based upon your gross income. This ratio is broken into two discrete measurements, called front end ratio and back end ratio, for underwriting standards. The front end ratio is the payments upon the proposed loan only (i.e. principal and interest), whereas the back end ratio adds in all debt service: credit cards, installment loans, finance obligations, student loans, alimony and child support, and property taxes and homeowner’s insurance on the home as well. The front end ratio is almost ignored; I cannot remember an instance of when front-end was a deal-breaker. The thing that will break most loans is the back end ratio, to the point where some lenders don’t really care about the front end ratio anymore.

Now, as to what gets counted, the answer is simple. The minimum monthly payment on any given debt is what gets counted. It doesn’t matter if you’re paying $500 per month, if the minimum payment is $60, that’s what will be counted.

“Can I pay off debt in order to qualify?” is a question I see quite a lot and the answer depends upon your lender and the market you’re in. For top of the market A paper lenders, who have to underwrite to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac standards, the answer is largely no. If you pay off a credit card where the balance is $x, there’s nothing to prevent you going out and charging it up again. Even if you close is out completely, the thinking (borne out in practice, I might add) is that you can get another one for the same amount trivially. “Won’t they just trust me to be intelligent and responsible?” some people will ask. The answer is no. Actually, it’s bleep no. A paper is not about trust. A paper is about you demonstrating that you’re a great credit risk. Even installment debt is at the discretion of the lender’s guidelines. If they believe that what you really did was borrow money from a friend or family member who expects to be repaid, expect it to be disallowed. Therefore, the time to pay off or pay down your debts is at least 30 days before your credit is run and before you apply for a loan.

For subprime loans, the standards are looser because the lender controls the money. As long as they can see where the money is coming from, they will usually allow the payoff in order to qualify.

Now many folks think that stated income loans don’t have a DTI requirement. They do. As a matter of fact, stated income is even less forgiving than full documentation loans in this regard. As I keep telling folks, for full documentation, I don’t have to prove every penny you make, I only have to prove enough to justify the loan. If what I proved before falls short, but if the client has more income, I can always prove more. For stated income, we still have to come up with a believable income for your occupation, and then the debt to income ratio is figured off of that. Even if the lender is agreeing not to verify income, they’re still going to be skeptical if you change your story. “You told me you make $6000 per month three days ago. Now you’re telling me you make $7000 per month. Which is it? Please show me your documentation!” In short, this loan has now essentially changed to a full documentation loan at stated income rates. Nor are they going to believe a fast food counter employee makes $80,000 per year. They have resources that tell them how much people of a given occupation make in the area, and if you’re outside the range it will be disallowed. So you need to be very careful to make certain the loan officer knows about all the monthly payments on debt you’re required to make. Sometimes it doesn’t show up on the credit report and the lender finds out anyway. This has nothing to do with utilities (unless you’re in the process of paying one of them back). That’s just living expenses, and you could, in theory, cancel cable TV if you needed to. Once you owe the money, you are obligated to pay it back.

As for what is allowable: A paper maximum back end debt to income ratios vary from thirty-eight to forty-five percent of gross monthly income. I’m a big fan of hybrid adjustables, but they are, perversely, harder to qualify for under A paper rules than the standard 30 year fixed rate loan despite the lower payments. This is because there will be an adjustment to your payment at a known point in time, and you’re likely to need more money when it does. Note that for high credit scores, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have automated underwriting programs with a considerable amount of slack cut in.

Some things count for more income than you actually receive. Social security is the classic example of this. The idea is that it’s not subject to loss. Once you’re getting it, you will be getting it forever, unlike a regular paycheck where you can lose the job and many people do.

Subprime lenders will usually, depending upon the company and their guidelines, go higher than A paper. It’s a riskier loan, and you can expect to pay for that risk via a higher interest rate, but even with the higher rate, most people qualify for bigger loans subprime than they will A paper. Some subprime lenders will go as high as sixty percent of gross income on a full documentation loan.

Whatever the debt to income ratio guideline is, it’s usually a razor sharp dividing line. On one side you qualify, on the other, you probably don’t. If the guidline is DTI of 45 or less, and you are at 44.9, you’re in, at least as far as the debt to income ratio goes. On the high side, waivers do exist but they are something to be leery of. Whereas many waivers are approved deviations from guidelines that may be mostly a technicality, debt-to-income ratio cuts to the heart of whether you can afford the loan, and if you’re not within this guideline, it may be best to let the loan go. You’ve got to eat, you probably want to pay your utility bills, and you only make so much. Debt to Income ratio is there for your protection as much as the bank’s.

Caveat Emptor.

The Deposit

A search I just noticed asked the question “Who gets the deposit if escrow falls through?”

The theory of the deposit is that here is an amount of cash that the buyer is putting up as evidence of their ability to consummate the transaction.

This is a good question. I’ve only dealt with real estate sales in California, so I’m going to deal with it from a California perspective. California is a widespread model for real estate practices (as New York is for insurance), but I can’t speak to the specifics which states are and aren’t following this model and to what degree.

Most of what happens in real estate sales contracts has a default, but is subject to specific negotiation. In other words, there’s a standard way of doing it, but you can change that by negotiation with the other party. CAR has a specific set of forms that are encouraged, in order to make these questions somewhat more clear cut.

The standard here in California is that the purchase is contingent for seventeen calendar days, after which the buyer’s deposit will belong to the seller whether escrow closes or not. From the time the contract is accepted by both sides, the buyer has seventeen days to finish all inspections, and to obtain a commitment for acceptable financing. If they call it off within those seventeen days, they get the deposit back. If the purchase falls through later than the seventeen days, the seller is usually entitled to the deposit, within limits. The seller can’t just arbitrarily cancel the transaction on the eighteenth day and keep the deposit. The time specified in the purchase contract has to have expired, there must be evidence of bad faith dealing on the buyer’s behalf – something.

Let me make very clear that the seller is indeed giving the buyer something when the purchase contract is signed. To be precise, the exclusive right to purchase that property for a certain amount of time. There are expenses of selling that they must pay and that they don’t get back if you can’t carry through, not to mention expenses related to preparing to move, at least potentially having the house sit vacant, etcetera. They cannot conclude a purchase contract with anyone else while the current buyer’s contract is going on. If I’m selling, I insist upon retaining the deposit if the buyer can’t carry though. If I were to be unable to consummate a purchase, I certainly understand that the seller will retain the deposit in most circumstances.

Now the escrow company won’t just give the deposit to the seller. They are paid to be a neutral third party, to stand in the middle and make sure that everybody gets what everybody agreed upon, but it is not their place to settle a dispute. For that, you’re going to have to go through whatever dispute resolution process is appropriate. This can be mediation, arbitration, the courts, or possibly something else. You can spend a lot of money fighting what the contract says, but in the end you can also expect to have to live up to it, and likely to pay the other party’s costs as well as your own, so better not to fight something the contract says you should have done. The escrow company will often also charge a cancellation fee from out of the deposit, by the way. They do an awful lot of work, and if the transaction gets cancelled for whatever reason, they do not otherwise get paid.

Probably the number one reason for failed escrow is loan providers leading borrowers down the primrose path. “I can do that,” and no, they can’t. Unfortunately, I’ve never seen anyone able to recover damages from a failed loan provider.

You can change the standard contract by specific negotiation. If you’re a seller who wants to get the deposit no matter what on day 30, you can ask for that as a condition of the initial sales contract. In a hot market, this is easy to ask for and get, but in a buyer’s market, you are likely to lose the buyer. If you’re a buyer who doesn’t want to lose the deposit no matter what, you can ask to put that into the contract you propose, but most sellers, even in a buyer’s market, are going to tell you to take a hike somewhere else. No big deal if it was “Hey, let’s make a bid on this and see how desperate they are!” A real problem if you fell in love with the property and just have to have it. Over-playing your hand in negotiations is as disastrous as under-playing, and I’ve seen people so intent on being Mr. (usually) Tough Negotiator that they diddled themselves out of an excellent transaction. In any case, being too sticky on the deposit is a good way not to get as good of a price as you otherwise might have. For a seller, you have this property and you want cash. You need somebody to agree to pay it – the cash is not going to materialize out of thin air. For a buyer, the whole idea is that this property is attractive to you for some reason, or you would not be making an offer. You are asking the seller to trust thousands of dollars to your ability to swing the deal as much as you are trusting their ability to deliver a clear title to a property without hidden defects.

Whether you are a buyer or a seller, once that contract is signed, you want to get cracking on whatever your obligations under it are. Get it Done. The alternative is that you’re likely to forfeit whatever rights to the deposit you may have had if you had been prompt. Just becuase Things Take Time in Real Estate Transactions is no excuse for you to waste time. Wasting time is expensive for everyone, and one of the strongest signs of a sour transaction I know. Buyers and borrowers pay increased loan and other costs, sellers lose money from delay. This is equally true in refinancing, by the way. The loan you are quoted today does not exist tomorrow unless you act on it today. In summer 2003, when rates hit fifty year lows, many people were in no hurry. They insisted upon thinking, in the face of evidence and testimony to the contrary, that the rates would always be there, and they lost out. If rates go down after locking, a good broker can usually get you better rates. If they go up, you’ve got the lock. If rates go up and you didn’t lock, you get the higher rates. Period.

But the deposit is definitely something that the buyer can owe the seller if the transaction falls through, and that’s as it should be.

Caveat Emptor

Investment Property and Sophisticated Users

The majority of the protections that folks have are aimed at helping non-professionals have a chance in the complex and nearly incomprehensible maze that is real estate. The legal presumption is basically that you are a babe in the woods, and can easily be led astray by the fast-talking real estate broker and the big bad mortgage lender. And actually, this isn’t too far off. I have seen enough to know that however bad a choice Negative Amortization loans are for 99 percent of the population, an unscrupulous agent and/or an unscrupulous loan provider can talk 95 percent plus of the public into getting one of them simply by accentuating the low payment and not mentioning the fact that your balance increases, among other things that most folks regard as inimical about them. Particularly in combination, each of them hoping for a big commission (the agent from a house beyond what the client can really afford, the loan provider from the associated loan), they reinforce each other’s credibility beyond all but the most skeptical of laypersons to withstand.

When you get into investment property, however, this isn’t just your personal residence any more. This is no longer something every living person needs, a place to live.

You are now intending to make money.

You are now in business. You are a businessperson. It does happen, of course, but it is difficult to have much sympathy for a businessperson who doesn’t know enough to conduct business of that nature. Some Poor Guy who wants to get in on the American Dream is entitled to significant legal protection against all the sharp and smooth operators out there. But once you get out of the realm of personal use and get into the realm of making money, now you are telling the world that you know something about this (or at least that you should know something).

You have promoted yourself into the realm of sophisticated user. The legal presumption is no longer that you are a babe in the woods, although you may be every bit as much of one as the person in the earlier example. But because you have promoted yourself to someone trying to make money, many of the protections and disclosure rules do not apply.

It’s not like you went out and got a real estate license (unless you did) or passed the bar, which automatically gives you the right to a broker’s license in most states. There are still significant protections even there. But if they wanted to push the point, your agent and loan provider could probably eliminate half the forms you’re asked to sign. The three day right of rescission goes away because instead of being presumed to require consultation with professional experts, you are presumed to be a professional expert. Why are you in the business if you’re not an expert?

Needless to say, this point has become quite the illuminator of experience for many folks who see others making money via real estate investments, and think, “That’s easy! I can do it too!” All too often, people who may be used to the protection afforded the general public get burned when they are presumed to be experts by the law. Not that the government has done a particularly good job of protecting the general public, but the sharks in those waters have to make it look reasonable. The sharks who swim in the waters of investment property have no such limitation. They talked you into a bad loan? For your own personal use, you have the three day right of rescission and many banking laws designed to require that the bank show something that can be construed as a benefit to you, the borrower. Lower payment, lower interest rate, something that persuades a judge that a rational person might have done this. The person with an investment property doesn’t have even that protection. So what if it leads to bankruptcy? You did it. You must have had some reason.

I am not a lawyer, and I am exaggerating a small amount for effect. Real Estate investments, handled correctly, can make you a humongous amount of money. The point I’m trying to make is that they can also lose the unwary a lot of money. The amount of loose money available in real estate for the picking is the lure for a large number of professional sharks.

Caveat Emptor

Annuities, Fixed and Variable

One of the most discounted investments available is the annuity.

An annuity can be thought of as the opposite of a life insurance policy. Instead of creating an lump sum of money, an annuity liquidates one by providing you instead with a stream of income.

The original idea is simple. Suppose you get a lump sum of money, and you have no immediate use for it. What’s more, you think you might waste it if it’s just sitting in the bank. So you decide to invest it with an insurance company, who will then pay you so much money per month, every month.

The real kicker, or reason for doing this, lies in the options for payoffs. These fall into three basic categories. Period certain, life, and life with period certain.

Period certain means you’ll get payments every month for however many years. If you die, your heirs get them. When that number of years is over, so is your payout.

Life payouts equally straightforward. You (or you and your spouse in joint life payouts) get those payments every month until you die. When you die, they stop. You could get hit by a bus the next month, or live another 150 years. However long it is, the payments continue for the full amount of time, and stop as soon as your life is over.

Life with period certain means that the payments will continue for your entire life, however long that is, but there will be a period of some number of years where if you are hit by that bus, your heirs will continue to get payments. This is highly useful to people who have minor children, who are thus assured that their children will continue to get something if they die.

The idea of either of these last two options is that you have an insurance company guaranteeing that you will not outlive the income you get from this money. This can be a very psychologically comforting thing for all sorts of people in all sorts of situations, who are thereby assured that they will have something to live on.

Annuities come in two flavors of beginning, immediate and deferred. Immediate means that here is this lump sum of money, annuitize me (start sending me a monthly check) right now. Deferred means I’m investing it with you, and I may invest more with you later, but let’s just let it grow for now as I don’t have any immediate need for the money. You can also withdraw money from a deferred annuity without annuitizing, but the tax treatment is not as favorable (see this article)

Annuities also come in two flavors of investment, fixed and variable. Fixed annuities are merged into the general assets and liabilities of the insurance company. You invest with them, they will guarantee you a fixed return, usually somewhere in the range of four to seven percent. Of course they turn around and invest your money and usually earn about 11 percent or so, but they assume the risk. The only risk you have is that the insurance company goes completely bust, but for this reason there are several rating services for insurance companies as to financial strength. One form of fixed annuity, Equity Indexed Annuities, are very popular right now with certain segments of the financial services industry, but any guarantee you can find in any fixed annuity can be found, usually in superior form with a superior product, in variable annuities. However, sales commissions for fixed annuities are much higher, so if you go to the insurance agent on the corner, you’re probably going to hear about a fixed annuity, especially if you don’t shop around.

In variable annuities, you assume the investment risk while the company still furnishes the insurance component. This is done via investing them in a set of mutual fund-like sub-accounts. Once annuitized, they make use of an assumed rate of return (ARR) on the underlying investment, which is usually between four and six percent. The higher an ARR you choose, the higher your initial payout, but if the results are less than ARR your payments can usually be reduced. Most if not all companies offering variable annuities do offer a minimum payout guarantee, and if your actual rate of return exceeds the ARR, your payments will be increased (indeed, this happens more often than not, within my experience). Variable annuities require not only an insurance license, but a securities license (NASD Series 6 or Series 7) in order to sell them, and are therefore usually purchased from financial advisors. The reason is because now you are assuming investment risk. I will caution the reader that while variable annuity sales commissions are not larger than advisor’s mutual funds, there is no reduction for higher investment amounts, so there may be incentive for some advisors to recommend variable annuities when mutual funds might be more appropriate. I have also seen “fee-only” planners take a fee for preparing an investment plan, then a commission for recommending these, where someone working on straight sales charge still gets the commission, but prepares the plan as “part of the package.” Nonetheless, when reading articles in the financial press, especially the “self-help” financial press, there is a heavy tendency to exaggerate the downsides of variable annuities, and the hypothesis that best explains the reasoning is that variable annuities require a financial professional to work with you as an individual. If you are working with a professional you trust, you’re not nearly as likely to go back to the bookstore or magazine stand for generic drivel with no fiduciary responsibility towards you. Admittedly, some advisors abuse it – and when they are caught, they are prosecuted and the insurance they are required to carry pays. The generic advice in books, newspaper, and magazines never has this responsibility in the first place. They are specifically exempted by the Investment Company Act of 1940.

I read a lot of, well, crap about variable annuity expenses. Most of it in the financial press, which should know better. How they have this expense and that expense and the other expense. The fact is that there are expenses associated with all annuities. The only additional expense that the variable annuity has that the fixed annuity does not is the expense of running the mutual fund-like sub-accounts, which actually average a bit lower than the equivalent mutual fund upon which these are usually based. Every other expense is part of every annuity – indeed, most of them are part of every insurance contract. Administration, Insurance, etcetera. They buy the stuff that makes an annuity an interesting and potentially worthwhile investment – that guarantee that you won’t outlive your money, among other possibilities. But because you’re dealing with something regulated by the SEC, the agent and the company have to tell you about them in variable annuities, whereas with every other insurance policy, they are a “black box” into which money goes and insurance comes out. Furthermore, variable annuities have a protection that fixed annuities do not. If the insurance company does encounter difficulty (rare for strong insurers), the variable sub-accounts are not assets of the insurance company, and cannot be attached by other creditors. They are yours.

Most companies offering annuities offer several options, depending upon what a prospective client really needs, and in what proportions. When I was in the business, the company whose variable annuities I most often sold when variable annuities were appropriate had twelve different annuities, offering this option or that option, depending upon which fit the clients needs, and they all had the same underlying subaccounts. On the other hand, I was appointed with a multitude of annuity companies, most of which I found had something to offer a certain client that was superior for that client’s purposes to other offerings. Furthermore, variable annuity offerings evolve over time. I ran across a reference to one that I used to sell in its II and III editions the other day, and it’s now in the VI form due to regulatory changes and a couple of product improvements.

On the pure investment scale, variable annuities have two significant upsides and one significant downside as opposed to mutual funds. The downside is easiest to explain. As previously discussed, they have a so-called “MIE” expense and charge ratio that goes from about one and a quarter to one and two-thirds percent per year (although some designed for asset-based management fees go as low as forty basis points), as opposed to 12-b-1 fees that for most mutual funds are about a quarter of a percent per year.

The first upside is the fact that all monies invested in an annuity earn money tax deferred. This means that you’re not paying taxes on money invested in annuities as you go, only when you withdraw it. This has the minor downside associated that it’s all ordinary income, none of it capital gains, and capital gains may be taxed at a lower rate. Nonetheless, because you’re not losing a fraction of your gains, you are earning interest on your taxes for those years until it’s time to pay, as opposed to paying taxes on your earnings, after which they are gone. Depending upon various assumptions, this direct trade-off between higher MIE charges and deferred taxes will have a mutual fund theoretically leading an equivalent variable annuity sub-account for about fifteen years (I can get results varying from ten years to twenty-two without unduly torturing the assumptions), after which the variable annuity sub-account (net after taxes and redemption) will take the lead. This does not take into account investment re-balancing, which would work in favor of the variable annuity sub-account, as moving money between those has no tax consequences, something that mutual funds cannot say.

On the other hand, if you’re talking about money that is tax-deferred by definition, such as IRA, Roth IRA, and many other sorts, the variable annuity sub-account does not gain the the benefit of the first advantage I just listed, as it is already present. Nonetheless, many very smart people nonetheless have tax deferred money in variable annuity subaccounts. Why? That’s the second upside I was going to mention. Because the managers of mutual funds have to sometimes make decisions for the fund based upon tax consequences to shareholders, as opposed to strictly what’s the smartest thing to do, investment-wise, as a large proportion of their shareholders investment dollars are not tax-deferred. But every last dollar invested in variable annuity subaccounts is tax deferred. So variable annuity subaccounts will usually outperform the equivalent mutual fund as far as investment return. I’ve seen estimates that range anywhere from fifty basis points to 150 basis points (0.5% to 1.5%) per year for the average of this number, depending upon who is doing the estimating. Given the 100 to 140 basis point difference in MIE vs. 12-b-1 charges, considered as a pure investment, this aspect of variable annuity subaccounts is likely to fall short of mutual fund returns considered from a strict “how many dollars do you end up with?” standpoint. Note, however, that the MIE buys some guarantees (insurance) in the areas of minimum returns, locking in high investment values, lifetime payouts, etcetera, which mutual fund 12-b-1 fees do not. If you’re prepared to undertake a lot more risks, mutual funds will probably (but only probably) come out ahead. If you want some guarantees, the variable annuity sub-account has a lot to be said for it. I know of many people who were looking to retire based upon mutual fund account balances in 1999, who are still down major percentages of what their portfolio value was then. If they had invested in a variable annuity, that 1999 value might have only been 99 percent of the mutual fund value, but they would still have every penny of it and then some.

Caveat Emptor

Libertarians and the Art Of Politics

(Originally written in 2005. Still valid)

Of all the political parties, my personal sympathies lie closest to the official platform of the Libertarian Party. Nonetheless, I have never been a registered Libertarian, never sent them money, and likely never will.

The Libertarian Party, you see, is primarily interested in ideological purity. They’ve been hijacked by those among the most extreme of all libertarians, and have consistently taken an “all or nothing” approach to politics. If you’re not for the purists ideological position, you don’t belong.

This is a good way to marginalize yourself, and indeed, the Libertarian Party has done just that. Their candidates consistently run somewhere in the mid single digits. You tell each other you’re “fighting the good fight” and congratulate yourself when everybody is disgusted enough with the major parties that you get 8 percent of the vote. This is a great way to keep the faithful together, but a truly awful way to move things in your direction politically. The impact on the political process of the Libertarian Party is basically zero. The majors may be aware that the Libertarians exist, but with all the libertarians off doing their own thing and no observable effect upon which of the two major parties wins, they have no reason to care.

Other groups no larger than the Libertarian Party wield an outsize political influence. For instance, the bisexual and homosexual political groups have a base that, depending upon who does the counting, runs from three to five percent of the electorate, but angering this constituency is something no politician does lightly. Why? They may be more affluent than average, but not notably so, and probably no more so than Libertarians. Well, they do give money, while libertarians are not noted for their generosity towards other parties’ politicians. But mostly, because they engage the major parties. They practically own the Democrats, but they have a lot of influence in Republican circles as well. More to the point, for a long time they have worked to earn political capital from the majors. For years, they endorsed – and worked for – any candidate who was less unfriendly to their issues than their major opposition, graduating to working harder for candidates that were actually friendly, to the point now where the issue is not usually which candidate is friendly to gay issues, but which candidate is friendlier. It was a long hard slog for them, and perhaps they’ve abused their power a little of late, but you have to respect and admire them for what they have accomplished. They have taught politicians nationwide that “gay-bashing” is hazardous to their political ambitions, while being “gay friendly” is conducive. They may not be a major block, but given how narrow many victories are, they are a critical one, including and especially if a major party wants control of the legislature. Three points away from your opposition’s candidate and towards yours might not tip every race, but it will tip enough such that if you’re competitive in the first place, you’ll win it. But in order to do it, you have to work with the major parties.

This is the lesson that libertarians need to learn if they want to have an effect on national policy. It may be very gratifying to a certain mindset to keep your ideals so pure that there is no chance of any actual effect upon the course of the country. But if you focus less on getting into office yourself, and more on rewarding politicians who come closer to your positions than their opposition, you wield more real power. Eight percent is a joke in an election, if that’s all you get. But the difference between forty-six and fifty-four percent is the difference between going back to your old career and going to the capitol. Newly elected legislators are known to be grateful to those who put them “over the top,” and to want to keep those folks on the list of people that are happy with them.

Furthermore, a lot of ordinary citizens really like moderate libertarian positions, but are profoundly uneasy with “purist” libertarians. Ronald Reagan’s coalition made smaller government one of their principal planks, and it won on two of the strongest electoral margins in living memory. Decriminalizing or legalizing marijuana polls very strong numbers, but change the question to “should every currently illegal drug be legalized?” and the vast majority will turn against you. The rational, obvious thing to do is take the easy victory, and see how it works out. In a few years, it may be that the electorate will support legalizing the next echelon of currently illegal drugs, and dropping restrictions on marginal cases. This also has the advantage that if it turns out that we’re wrong, we find out about it before we’ve got thirty million heroin junkies and fifty million cocaine addicts.

Indeed, true libertarian policies have never been tried on anything like the scale of the United States, so incremental steps in that direction is likely to be a good thing. Libertarian politics and economics and social science sure looks good on paper, but so does communism. One of the major things wrong with communism, it seems, is that it requires communists to acquire power. All the power, to where there is no opposition force with enough power to restrain them. And that following communists acquisition of power, they insisted upon an immediate and as radical shift as they could possibly manage, with the results anyone who hasn’t been living in a bubble these past eighty years is all too familiar with. It didn’t work, but the communist rulers would not admit it, and no one inside the system could force them to. I can hear people snorting with derision about the very notion of libertarians practicing censorship and coercion, but are you prepared to bet the future of the United States on it? Especially when there is no necessity, that’s a sucker bet – a pointless risk where you could lose but can’t really win because there is nothing to gain by giving any group a monopoly on power.

I see nothing in any major libertarian-backed policy that requires an “all or nothing” approach. Indeed, for most of them an experimental movement in that direction, intentionally either limited in scope or in accomplishment, would be important confirmation of libertarian theory, assuming it is successful. There is clearly not adequate evidence to presume that no further experimental proof is necessary, and that libertarian theory must be implemented in full without further error checking.

In short, I could be wrong. We could be wrong. If so, incrementalism will reveal it.

Therefore, there is no rational reason for libertarians not to engage with anybody “going their way”. Small government republicans and chamber of commerce republicans on one hand, and civil rights democratic groups on the other. Whichever politician, whichever major party, is willing to give more precedence and importance to libertarian values. Work with them, do your best to help them beat their opponent. Once upon a time, libertarians wielded significant power in this way. Indeed, I happen to believe that the statist ascendancy dates from the libertarian self-destruction as a potent political force. The country could only benefit from a libertarian return to the fold of the major parties.