Buying Below Market

This question:

What real estate office can I trust to help buy below market house in (location) California in the year 2006?


brought someone to the site and I have not previously written a real answer to the question.

The short answer is “nobody.”

This doesn’t have to do with trust. It has to do with the facts of life and bad assumptions.

What is the definition of market price? It is the price at which a willing buyer and a willing seller exchange a property. In other words, what you buy it for is by definition the market price.

Everybody wants to buy real estate for less than it’s really worth, just like everyone wants to sell it for more than it’s really worth. Mathematically speaking, at least fifty percent of each have to fail, and the fact that you’re even asking the question indicates that you have made incorrect assumptions.

Real Estate is not like stocks or bonds. No matter how big or how small your transaction, it’s always a one on one transaction. If you are selling, you need to find one buyer willing and able to buy that property for a price you are willing to sell. If you are buying, you need to find one property where the owner is willing to sell at a price you are willing and able to buy it at.

This is not to say that the general market is irrelevant. If someone is pricing a more desirable home lower than you, you’ve overpriced your property. If the identical condo next door to the one you bought sold for ten percent less, you probably overpaid. But it’s not for nothing that the mantra about the three most important things in real estate being “location, location, and location.” No two properties are ever identical. Think condos, even. Which would you rather have: The one right next to the parking lot, the mailboxes, and the swimming pool, or the one way in the back where you have to walk a quarter mile from your car, and further from everything else? I assure you that a goodly portion of the population would choose the one you think of as less attractive. It’s the choice of the individual buyer, and a real estate agent has to learn how to get the attention of the person who’s most likely to be interested in that property.

I keep telling people that getting a good price at sale time is nice for both the buyer and the seller, but the really important thing is your amount of time in the investment. Let’s go back in time some years. Homes in my neighborhood were worth maybe $180,000 at the time, and condos were worth maybe $65,000. Had people going around making low ball offers on everything. Offered maybe $55,000 for the condos, $150,000 for the homes. Nobody who wasn’t desperate wanted to sell, of course, and that’s just what they were checking for – desperation. Had they offered something vaguely reasonable, say $60,000 for the condos or $170,000 for the home, they likely would have gotten a property. At least one group of these people ended up not buying anything. Fast forward five years. Those same condos are worth $275,000, and those same homes are selling for $500,000. If the thought of missing out on $210,000 profit for the condos because you couldn’t make $217,000 bothers you, then you seem pretty rational to me. If, on the other hand, the thought of missing out on an extra $20,000 you’re not going to get for the single family residence makes you want to just throw $330,000 base profit (tripling your money!) out the window, please go waste someone else’s time.

There is nothing wrong with desperation sales and offers that are desperation checks, so long as you are willing and able to then proceed to something more reasonable. Nobody wants to sell to somebody looking to flip a property, but they do want to sell for a reasonable price. That’s why the property is on the market. Somebody offers me (or my client) fifteen percent less than the property is worth, I usually write something like “offer rejected. Why would I (my client) want to give you fifteen percent of my investment’s value?” and append a list of comparables. Counteroffering just wastes time when the offer isn’t even in the right ballpark. The ones who can come back with a reasonable offer want the property, or they wouldn’t have made the offer. The ones just looking for the desperation sale aren’t going to bother.

Now some potential buyers are only interested in desperation scenarios. That’s fine, but you’re going to work awfully hard and put in a lot of offers before you get one, and the ones with the most potential for quick profit are going to be the ones where there is a lot of work to be done. Additionally, right now the market just won’t support CondoFlippers Inc.

Yes, I believe in hard bargaining. Judging from evidence I see around me, I’m one of a small percentage who does. But I’m willing to come from a reasonable starting position, although I do love it when my clients decide they want to put an offer in on a discount agent’s listing, because the client I’m acting as buyer’s agent for is going to think I walk on water when the transaction is over, while the sellers are going to find out first hand the truth of the adage “You get what you pay for”.

Lest you think that your negotiation discount equals your profit, it isn’t. It’s a small part of your profit. Let’s say you get the condo for $250,000 or you won’t buy it at all, even though comparables are selling for $275,000. Let’s say you intend to flip for $290,000, not that that’s going to happen in this market, but let’s say you succeed anyway. Your net is something like $268,000, after spending $253,000 or so to buy, and you spent about $5000 making the payments on the mortgage even if it did sell right away (more likely, given the realities, that you spend the entire “profit” on the mortgage payment!)

Now let’s say, instead, that the market collapses twenty percent the day after you buy, down to $220,000. If you have a sustainable mortgage and bring in a tenant, your cash flow should be even or positive. Hold on to the darned thing for five years, and at historical seven percent average per year, the property is worth $308,000. Hold it ten years and it’s worth $432,000 under the same assumptions. The first number gives you as much profit as the flipper even has a theoretical chance for, while the latter blows the flipper out of the water. Even after a price collapse, and because you’ve been in a sustainable situation this whole time, it really isn’t critical how long the prices take to come back, because you’re not under the gun of a deadline. So long as you have a sustainable cash flow, the risk is essentially nonexistent. It’s when you have an unsustainable cash flow that you’ve got to worry. Say like, an empty unit where you’ve got to make the mortgage payment without rent because you’re trying to flip it.

In fact, given a sustainable cash flow, unless property values collapse and stay down forever, the question is closer to when you’re going to cash out and how much, rather than if. Southern California Real Estate has always moved in cycles. What’s down today is up forty percent five years from now. The trick is being able to bridge the gap between now and then.

If some of the above seems like I’m attacking the “bigger fool” theory of real estate, consider this: Somebody’s always the last, biggest, fool in line, and until you get the check for the net proceeds from the sale, that person is you. It should be an agent’s responsibility to see to it that their clients aren’t the only ones without a chair when the music stops. For all too many of them, their thinking stops at the receipt of the commission check.

Caveat Emptor

Approaching the Loan Application Process – What Loan Will You Qualify For?

On of the biggest time and money wasters in real estate is people that apply for the wrong loans – loans that they can never qualify for because they can’t meet the guidelines, or can’t prove they meet the guidelines, which amounts to the same thing. Often, loan officers are the worst offenders, judging by the people who come into my office with messes for me to clean up. They don’t know how to submit a loan, or they know full well it won’t be approved, but they get you to sign up by dangling this carrot, and then snatching it away, but now they’ve got you working with them and they end up with your business because they told you a fairy tale that sounded better than what the other guy talked about because he restricted himself to talking about loans he could actually deliver.

How do you know what mortgage market is best for you?

There isn’t a cut and dried answer unless you’re one of those folks who can qualify “A paper” full documentation. If you can do it, and a lot more folks can qualify this way than think they can, A paper full doc is the way to go. Because it’s the least risky loan, the banks give you the best pricing. What if you can’t make it, however?

The reasons why people fall away from A paper full doc is long. The two largest ones, however, are people who cannot prove they make enough money and people whose credit score isn’t high enough. At a distance from that, the third reason why folks don’t qualify, is late payments. A paper permits one thirty day late on the mortgage, or two on other credit. If you fall off the pace due to late payments, you have to go subprime.

A paper accepts only two ways of proving your income: Income tax forms and, for some employees not in construction or on commission, w-2s and year to date pay stubs. If, with the income taken from these forms does not qualify you according to A paper debt to income ratio considering your known debts (typically 45% back end ratio, but I’ve seen high seventies get accepted in some circumstances), you do not qualify full documentation. Think of full doc as being where you prove you’re got enough income to make your payments. If you can’t do full documentation, you have to go to stated income.

A paper also requires an absolute minimum credit score of 620. 619 is an automatic rejection from any A paper program out there. Some A paper may require higher credit scores (640 jumbo, 660 stated income, 680 for both), and if you haven’t got it, you don’t have the loan, either. If you don’t have the relevant credit score, you’re going to subprime.

A paper stated income is where you’ve got a good credit score and can prove that you’ve got a job (or a source of income) and you’ve had it for two years. You just can’t prove you make enough money to justify the loan. You could be making it, though, and the lender agrees not to verify, although they will look at it to see if the income you claim is consistent with your profession. You’re paying your bills on time, though, so lenders are willing to believe that you’re living within your means, and therefore qualify for the loan. They are not agreeing to close their eyes if something indicates you cannot afford it or what your real income is; they’re just not going to go out of their way to verify your income. They are going to have you sign an IRS form 4506, releasing your taxes to them. Don’t worry too much about it. The IRS takes a minimum of 60 days to respond, and the loan will be done in thirty, if your provider is competent, and it’s not fraud to overstate your income on a stated income loan. Dumb, maybe; fraud, no. The major reasons why “A paper” stated income falls out are low credit score, insufficient time with your source of income, and incompetent loan officers who allow the underwriters to find out that the client doesn’t make that much. Low credit score goes to subprime, insufficient time in line of work goes to NINA, and loans with incompetent loan officers start over with another lender.

A paper NINA is a loan driven by the credit score and the situation you find yourself in. There is no debt to income ratio, and the personal qualification consists of a good credit report. Of course, you still have to have the appraisal and the rest of the documentation relating to the property. Furthermore, the rates are higher than stated income (which is in turn higher than full documentation), and the maximum Loan to Value Ratio is lower. Common fallouts are credit score too low (go to subprime), loan to value ratio too high (go to subprime) and something wrong with the property (go to hard money)

Subprime is an entirely different world than A paper. The standards are different, the qualifications are different, everything is different. Just because you can’t go full documentation A paper doesn’t mean you can’t do it subprime. For one thing, typical subprime goes up to fifty percent debt to income ratio, and a few lenders will go higher – some as high as sixty percent! So even though the rates are higher, it may be easier to qualify.

Subprime also has another form of accepted income documentation: bank statements for the last six, twelve, or twenty-four months. When I started, this was always discounted, but of late personal bank statements have been accepted on the strength of 100 percent of the income they show. This rate will be higher than a borrower who can prove their income via one of the A paper methods, but is lower than stated income. Number one reason for falling out of subprime full documentation: Not enough income. Number two: sub-500 credit score. Number three: the underwriter believes that you manipulated your income on your bank statements. Not enough income goes to stated income subprime (with another lender, as if it was submitted full doc it cannot go stated income with that lender). Sub 500 credit score goes to hard money, which is where you might as well start when you find out, because regulated lenders can’t touch you if you don’t have at least one of your three credit scores above 500. If the underwriter thinks you manipulated your income, you or your loan officer have either got to convince them you didn’t, which usually requires w2s at least, or you are going to another lender.

Subprime stated income is fairly wide open, with the proviso that a given credit score will have a higher rate and a lower maximum permitted loan to value ratio. Number one reason for falling you here is that you don’t meet loan to value guidelines. Number two is you didn’t state enough income in the first place, and you don’t qualify by debt to income ratio guidelines. Number three is you stated too much income, and the underwriter doesn’t believe you make that much money. They can always require income documentation – they don’t have to let you state it without verification. At best, anyone suffering from any of these three problems can expect to have to go to another lender, because this lender will not now approve their loan. Maybe lose a little time if you’re working with a broker who then submits the package elsewhere. Back to square one if you were working with a direct lender.

Subprime NINA is even more wide open. A loan officer has got to be a serious bozo to blow this one, but I clean up behind ones that went bad on a distressingly frequent basis.

Hard money is the last hope of the unfortunate. These folks don’t care about your income, your credit score, or anything else. What they care about is that they can sell the house for enough to cover the loan if you default, and unlike regulated lenders, they will record that Notice of Default on the day you become eligible. Sometimes they are the only choice, but if you find yourself dealing with them you should really ask yourself if this loan is something you absolutely have to have, or if you just want it. If the answer is the latter, my advice is to reconsider getting the loan.

There you have it, something like a flowchart of what kind of loan you should apply for. These are far from the only reasons loans fall apart, of course, but they are the most common. A good loan officer knows enough of the tricks and traps to tell you the truth straight off, and apply to the appropriate loan first, without wasting your time and money. Bad ones don’t.

Caveat Emptor

Appraisers Speak Out Against “Make The Deal”

Appraisers Petition Against “Make The Deal”

I’ve spoken about these issues before in this post.

I’ve certainly heard of plenty of abuse on both sides of this equation, and there is plenty of motivation for lenders to abuse the situation by requiring a higher than “real” appraisal value. Still, I think that by reading only the comments from various appraisers one would get a skewed vision of what is going on.

It is the appraiser’s job to do their best to get a value that is useful. Theirs is a service occupation, just as mine is. I don’t expect to be paid if I can’t help the people with their situation. Sometimes I put in hundreds of dollars and dozens of hours of work and it all falls apart because of something beyond my control. Situations like this are part of being in business for yourself. I don’t expect to get paid when I can’t help the people. Why does the appraiser?

These houses are selling for these prices. If the last three similar houses in the neighborhood sold for $600,000, then this one is likely worth $600,000 also. When the appraiser tries to tell me a house that I’ve seen and is immaculate and further upgraded than than any of the last three is worth $150,000 less than those sold for, something is wrong, and it isn’t with the house.

Basically, what’s wrong is they don’t want to work. They want to be able to drive over and pop the customer for the bill and let the chips fall where they may. And if the house is really only worth $450,000, the house is only really only worth $450,000. But most of the time, if they worked a little bit, and maybe chose a different sale to compare to, they could justify the higher appraisal, but they don’t want to be bothered.

Let me ask you: Somebody bills you $400 or so for work that doesn’t help you and in fact makes all of the work you put in worthless, it makes you feel all happy, right? They knew before they went over and asked for the check that they weren’t going to be able to get the necessary value. You know something? I’d be more forgiving of him charging me $400 in those circumstances than charging my client $400. If the appraiser called first, and told me he couldn’t get value, that gives me a chance to re-work the loan and save everyody’s investment in this by talking to the client before the client has written a check for $400. If I can’t get the client to accept the new loan, at least they’re not telling people I screwed them out of $400 on the appraisal. That’s right, it’s the loan provider that gets the blame for this in the customer’s mind. If I tell them about a change before they spent $400, they’re not going to be as angry, and even if this loan falls apart they’re likely to tell people I was honest and saved them from being out $400 rather than that I took their $400 and didn’t deliver. As I think you might have gathered by now, I didn’t get that $400 – the appraiser who screwed the loan up did. If I can’t turn it into a new different loan, the appraiser is out a little bit of work. I’ve put ten times as much into making this happen. It’s much easier to tell the client their house is only worth $450,000 before they’ve written that check for $400. The check gets written, and the whole thing is gone up in smoke.

The appraiser, understandably, wants to get paid for their work. So do I. All I ever ask is that they don’t intentionally waste my client’s money. If they can’t get value, give me a chance to re-work the loan or find someone who can get value. In some situations on a sale, this allows me a chance to re-negotiate the price down so my client gets a better price on the house they want. If they just make the call that gives me a chance to fix it first, I will use them again. That’s the kind of appraiser I want to work with. But do a “hop pop and drop” (“hop on over, pop the customer for the bill, and drop a useless appraisal on the bank”) so that they get paid once while I’m stuck with a pissed off customer who is now going to tell all their friends and family what an awful person I am, and I think they’ve earned a spot on my personal blacklist of appraisers I will never do business with again. I’ll forgive it once, maybe even twice, if this appraiser has a history of calling me first and this time it just happened that they couldn’t get value when they thought they could. Treating your customers right is part of the requirements of being in business for yourself, and sometimes this means you did some work and didn’t get paid. You want a job with a steady income where you don’t take any risks, go find something with a w-2 involved, and the only risk you take is being fired. You won’t make as much money, but you will get paid for all the work that you do. For as long as they put up with you.

Caveat Emptor

“Lenders Are All The Same”

Just like Mohandas Gandhi and Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun were all human beings, lenders make money by lending money to people who want it.

That’s about the limit of the truth in that statement.

Lenders do, by and large, get their money to lend from the bond market. But not all lenders get their money from the same part of the bond market. Some get the money from low-risk tolerance folks looking for security, and willing to accept comparatively low rates. Some get the money from high risk tolerance folks looking for more return for their risk. Within each band, there are various grades and toughnesses of underwriting. A lender with tough underwriting will have a very low default rate, and practically zero losses. A lender with more relaxed underwriting will have more defaults, and higher losses, meaning they must charge higher rates of interest in order to offer the investors the same return on their money.

I have literally just finished pricing a $600,000 loan for a client with top notch credit and oodles of income (he’s putting $800k down). Even A paper and with the yield curve essentially flat, I got variations of three eighths of a percent on where their par rate was. Every single one of them had significant differences in how steep the points/yield spread curve was (if you need these terms explained this is a good place). For one lender it was “offsheet pricing” below their lowest listed rate. This lender is more interested in low cost loans, and they take it for granted that folks will not be in their loans very long. This lender is appropriate for those who are likely to refinance within a few years. For another lender, it was “offsheet pricing” above their listed sheet prices. This lender specializes in low rates that cost multiple points, so they can market lower payments. For those few people who really won’t sell or refinance for fifteen years, these are superior loans.

Which do you think is really better for the average client? Well, let’s evaluate a 6.5 percent 30 year fixed rate loan that costs literally zero (I get paid out of yield spread, while rebating enough to the customer to cover all their costs), with a 5.875% 30 year fixed rate loan that costs $3400 plus two points. I always seem to be computing $270,000 loans here, but since this was “jumbo” pricing and a $270,000 loan is “conforming”, which carries lower rates, I’ll run through both.

The 6.5 percent loan is zero cost to the client. Nothing out of pocket, nothing added to the loan balance. Gross Loan Amount: $270,000. The 5.875% loan cost 1.875 points in addition to $3400 in closing costs. Gross loan amount $278,625. You have added $8625 to your mortgage balance to save yourself $98.40 per month. You theoretically are ahead after 88 months (7 years, 4 months), but not really even then.

Every so often I get a question that asks why they can’t have A for the price of B. The answer is the same as the reason why you can’t have a Rolls Royce for the price of a Yugo. Another funny thing about Rolls Royces is how expensive they are to maintain. A middle class person with a Rolls better plan on living in it. The funnier thing is, your friends, family and neighbors can’t even see you in it, so there is no point in a “Rolls Royce” home loan except for utility, and if it’s not paying for itself, then there is no utility (or negative utility, i.e. something you don’t want), and therefore, money wasted.

Now, let’s crank the loans through five years – longer than 95 percent plus of all borrowers keep their loans, according to federal statistics – and see which is really better for most borrowers. The 5.875% loan makes monthly payments of $1648.17. Over five years – 60 payments – they pay $98,890 and pay their balance down to $258,869. Total principal paid: $19,756. Actual progress on the loan (amount owed less than $270,000): $11,131. Interest paid: $79134, which assuming a 30 percent combined tax rate, saves you $23,740 on your taxes.

Now let’s look at that 6.50 percent loan that didn’t add a penny to your balance. Monthly payments of $1706.58, total over five years $102,395. Looking pretty awful, so far, right? But your total amount owed is now only $252,750. Total principal paid: $17,250. But this same number is also the actual progress! Interest paid $85,145, and assuming 30 percent combined tax rate, same as above, it gives you a tax savings of $25,543.

Now let’s consider where you are after five years.

With the 5.875% loan, you saved $3505 on payments. But you also owe $6118 more, and the 6.5 percent loan saved you $1803 more on your taxes. Furthermore, if you’ve learned your lesson and rates are as low when you refinance or sell (6.5 percent on your next loan), it’s going to cost you $397.67 per year from now on for that extra $6118 you owe! Net cost: $4416 plus nearly $400 more per year for as long as you have a home loan. Assuming that’s “only” 25 years, your total cost is $14,358. I never spent so much money to save a little for a little while!

Now, let’s consider that $600,000 loan in the same context. After all, the pricing really applies there (conforming rates are lower). Appraisal costs a little more, and so does title and escrow, for jumbo loans on million dollar houses. Let’s say $3700 in costs. Your new 5.875% loan would be for $615,236 (disregarding rounding). Payment $3639.35, which over 5 years goes to $218,361 in payments. Crank it through 60 payments, and you’ve paid the loan down to $571,612. Principal paid $43,388, actual progress $28,388. Total Interest paid, $174,973, which assuming a combined 40% tax rate (higher income to qualify!) gives you a tax savings of $69,989.

At 6.50 percent, the payment on a $600,000 loan is $3792.40. Times 60 payments is $227,544. Crank the loan through those 60 payments, and you’ve paid the loan down to $561,666. Principal paid and actual progress made: $38,344. Total interest paid $189,209, which at the same combined 40% rate is a tax savings of $75,684.

With the 5.875% loan, you saved $9183 in payments. Yay! However, you owe $9946 more, paid $5695 more in taxes, and on your next loan, assuming it’s at 6.5 percent, you pay $646.49 per year in additional interest. Total cost is $6458 plus $646 per year for as long as you have a home loan, which assuming that’s 25 years equates to a total of $22,620!

Which of these two loans and lenders is better for you? Well, if you’re going to stay 15 years or more and never refinance, the lender who wants to give you the 5.875% loan. That rate wasn’t even available from the 6.5 percent lender. On the other hand, if you’re like the vast majority of the population that refinances or sells within five years (for whatever reason) you really want the 6.5 percent loan whether you knew it before now or not, which also was not available from the 5.875 percent lender.

The billboards advertising rates aren’t going to tell you cost, of course. They’re trying to lure clients who don’t know any better, and often they’re playing games with the loan type as well. But when the rate spread between the rate their selling and APR is over 3 tenths of a percent, you know they’re building a blortload of costs into it. Keep in mind that the examples I used were almost two full points, and they were each only about a 0.25% spread between rate and APR. You are never going to recover those costs in the time before you refinance. The lender who offers you 6.5 percent for zero cost is probably offering you a better loan.

Now, there were lenders targeting the markets between these two lenders, some that overlapped the whole market, and even another lender specializing in rates even lower and with higher pricing. Keep in mind that this article was limited to A paper 30 year fixed rate loans, which are limited in what they can possibly accept by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rules. Once you get out of the A paper market and especially down into sub-prime lenders, the diversity between offerings really multiplies, as the differences they are permitted in target market cover all parts of the spectrum. Some wholesalers walk into my office with the words, “Got any ugly sub-prime today?” Other sub-prime wholesalers ask me about “people that could be A paper but are willing to accept a prepayment penalty to get a lower rate” (I don’t use those much). Some want short term borrowers, and their niche is the 2/28. Some want the thirty year fixed with a prepayment penalty. The ones who ask me about negative amortization loans, I throw out of my office but they’re selling them somewhere. A lot of somewheres, judging from the evidence that they were 40 percent of purchase money loans here locally last year.

So lenders are not all the same. Indeed, every single one of them is different, and you need to shop enough different ones to find the program that’s right for you, and ask lots of questions every time. Just asking about rate is not going to make you happy, as I hope I have just demonstrated. If you walk into their office, they’re not going to tell you that you’re not the client they’re really looking for unless they just don’t have any loans at all that you qualify for (and if you’re in this category, do not blindly accept any recommendations they make. Most places, they’re sending you to the place that pays the most for the referral, not the lowest cost provider).

Caveat Emptor

Short Payoffs

A while ago I wrote an article called, “What Happens When You Can’t Make Your Real Estate Loan Payment.” This is kind of a continuation of that, as I got a search that asked, “What is necessary to persuade a bank to accept a short payoff on a mortgage”

Poverty. In a word, poverty. You have to persuade the bank that this is the best possible deal they are going to get. You can’t make the payments, and if they foreclose they will get less money.

A “short sale” or short payoff is defined as a sale where the proceeds from the sale will not cover the secured obligations of the owner. The cash they will receive from the sale is “short” of the necessary amount. The house is no longer worth what they paid for it.

There are more and more of these happening around here. There are always people that lost their good job and can’t get a replacement nearly as good. But now there are also people that were put into too much house, and approved for too much loan, and now they can’t make the payments. Unscrupulous agents that wanted a bigger commission, loan officers going along, and nobody acting like they were responsible for the consequences to their clients. My concern for lenders who do stated income and negative amortization loans (and a lot of loans that are both!) is kind of minimal. Okay, it’s very minimal. Like nonexistent smallest violin in the world playing “My Heart Cries For Thee” level sympathy. I forsee many lenders going through bad times ahead, to use a forecasting method that’s about as mysterious as falling rocks.

On the other hand, for the people who were led into these transactions by agents with a fiduciary responsibility towards them, I have great heaping loads of sympathy and I’ll do anything I can to help. Yes, they’re theoretically responsible adults, but when the universe and everyone is telling them all the things that buyers were told these last couple of years, it’s understandable. Sure there’s a greed component in many cases but when they’re told by both loan officers and the real estate agents that they “wouldn’t have qualified for the loan if you couldn’t afford it,” they are being betrayed by the same people who are supposed to be professionals looking out for their interests. I really do suggest finding a good lawyer to these folks, as those agents who did this to them (and their brokerages) better have had insurance which said lawyer can sue to recover money they never should have been out.

I’m going to sketch it out in broad terms, but there are a lot of tricks to the trade. This is not something to try “For Sale By Owner.”

First off, you need to draw a coherent picture of the loan payment being unaffordable. If you were on a negative amortization approaching recast, or hybrid ARM (usually interest only for the fixed period) that is now ready to adjust, you’re facing a much higher payments. Even if you were able to afford the minimum payment before, now you can’t and you’ve decided to sell for what you can get before it bankrupts you to no good purpose. You’re going to have to prove you can’t afford it, of course, the bank isn’t just going to accept your word, but several late payments or a rolling sixty day late that looks headed for ninety have been known to be persuasive. Nonetheless, there are a lot of tacks that you don’t want to take. Remember, lenders want to be repaid and they’ve got a couple of pretty powerful sticks to shake at you. They are not going to agree to sacrifice money merely because to make the payments would be uncomfortable for you. You’re going to have to persuade them it’s impossible.

Second, you’re going to have to persuade the lender that this is the best possible price that you are going to get, and that anything more they might get from foreclosure is going to be more than offset by what they’ll lose through the expenses involved. Not to mention that they might end up owning the property, which they don’t want to do because then they have to spend more money selling it.

Third, you’ve got to be on the ball about the transaction itself. All the ducks have to be in the row from the start, which is when you approach the lender with a provisional transaction. If they’re not, the lender is just not going to go through the process of approving a short sale until they are. Since this takes time, it has the effect of dragging out the transaction. Every missed deadline means the lender will look at the whole thing again, possibly changing their mind about approving the short sale. You need a qualified buyer.

Fourth, just be prepared for the fact that the lender is not only not going to approve the transaction if you get any money, but that they’re also going to send you a form 1099 after it is all done. This form 1099 will report income for you from forgiveness of debt. This is taxable income! Many agents eager to make a sale will not tell the sellers this, and when you get right down to it, there is no legal requirement to do so, but I’ve always thought this was one of the ways to tell a good agent from a not-so-good one. It does seem like something you should be told about before you’ve got the 1099 form in your mailbox, right? At that point, you are stuck with all of the consequences, where if you had known before, you might not have been so complacent. It is to be noted I’ve been made aware of ways to circumvent the “no money to the owner” requirement, but they are FRAUD, as in go to jail for a while and be a convicted felon for the rest of your life FRAUD. It can be tempting, but committing fraud is one of the most effective ways I know to make a bad situation worse.

For the buyer, short sales are attractive for any number of reasons. Typically the seller is in a situation where they have to sell, and everyone knows it. The option of waiting for a better offer really isn’t on the table if what you’re offering is anything like reasonable. They can’t bluff you, they should know that bluffing you is a waste of effort, and somebody should have explained to them that they really just want out now (and why this is so) before it gets worse. What’s not to like?

Your competition. Because there’s fast money to be made, these folks are the target of “flippers” everywhere. The large city, highly inflated markets more so than most. A couple weeks ago we put one on the market and got three ugly low-ball offers within 48 hours, and this is part of why you need an agent to sell one. Remember, the seller isn’t getting any money, but they are going to get a 1099 form that says they have to pay taxes. Don’t you think most folks would rather it was for less money, and therefore, less taxes, instead of more? The more money the lender loses, the higher your liability. Had any one of the three made a better offer in the first place, they would have gotten the property at a price to make a profit, but they had to prove how rapacious they were, or something. As it was, we jawboned the first three vultures and two other, later entries, into a quasi-decent price, with minimal later tax obligation to our seller.

In summation, “short sales” are a way to cut your losses for sellers, and a way to get a wonderful price for buyers, but you have to know how to convince the lenders to accept them, and how not to overplay your bargaining position, lest you get left out in the cold.

Caveat Emptor

Seller Paid Closing Costs (or, When Your Prospective Buyer Has No Money)

In many transactions these days, the buyer has absolutely no money, or an amount that is not sufficient to pay the costs that they would traditionally be expected to pay in order to close the transaction. Nonetheless, in today’s buyer driven market, often the seller still wants to do business with them.

The usual way it’s handled is in Seller Paid Closing Costs. The Seller gives the buyer an allowance to cover their share of the costs.

Lenders have been somewhat tolerant of the practice of late, at least so long as the appraisal comes in at or above the official sale price. However, more of them are once again starting to revert to the treatment this trick traditionally got, which is to say, if the sale price included a rebate to the buyer, then the sale price as far as the lender was concerned was the official price less the rebate. In other words, seller’s net. Remember, lenders value real estate the same as accountants, on the LCM principal – Lesser of Cost (which is to say purchase price) or market (which is to say the appraised value). If the seller is giving the buyer money back, then the official price listed on the transaction isn’t really the price, is it? Do advertisers tease you with the gross price of stereo or computer gear before the rebate, or the net price after the rebate? Same principle here. The lenders traditionally took this stance, although it has been more relaxed in the highly competitive lender’s market of late. The lenders are (typically) not going to lend more money than the lesser of those the two variables, cost and market, and they will base the loan parameters on whichever is less. You can always buy a house for more money than the value, as long as you have the cash to make up the difference. But 100 percent financing seems almost de rigeur of late.

The Sellers get their house sold. That and the ego thing of the official sale price seem to be the benefits to them. I would certainly rather sell for the seller’s net in the first place, if I’m a seller, without an allowance, because I have to pay commission on that higher amount. A $10,000 allowance (as has become common here) costs the seller $700 to $800 or so in increased costs – agents commissions, title insurance, escrow fees, transfer taxes – even if the sale price is $10,000 higher because of it. This is neglecting the potential effects of taxes due to exceeding the $250,000 (or $500,000) maximum gain exemption from the IRS code Section 121. I recommend against it for sellers unless there is a substantial deposit, as it is often indicative of a not very qualified buyer. Even then, it’s a real good idea to talk to your tax person.

The Buyers get a deal, or so it appears at first blush. A piece of property without having to save for closing costs. In many cases, they don’t have to put a penny down, either. Pretty cool, eh? Get a house and actually skip a month (due to the allowance covering prepaid interest), so effectively putting cash in your pocket. Keep in mind, however, that the average seller is going to inflate the sales price to match, where (if they were smart) they would rather have accepted the net sales price without rebate. Furthermore, at least here in California, property taxes are based upon official original sales price, so you’ll be paying for it as long as you own the property. Finally, because your purchase price, and therefore your loan, is going to be higher, your payment is going to be higher, you’ll pay higher loan costs every time you refinance, and your eventual net on the property will be lower. If it is the only way to get into the property, and the deal otherwise makes sense, that’s fine – but don’t kid yourself that you got free money. Chances are that you’re going to pay far more than the amount of any allowance because you got it.

If it’s bad for the seller, bad for the buyer, and risky for the lender, why does it keep happening so much?

Well, it’s a sale for sellers. The property has now been disposed off. It’s also an ego defense for sellers. Instead of $470,000, they can tell everyone they got $480,000. So long as they don’t mention the allowance, it sounds like a far better price to their friends, family, and soon to be ex-neighbors. In short, bragging rights. Buyers, it gets them into the property, often without coming up with a penny and allowing them to save one month’s rent or payment, effectively putting cash in their pocket.

Real Estate and Mortgage folks, get bigger commissions. $10,000 in sales price gets translated to $100 per 1 percent of commission. This is anywhere from an extra $100 to an extra $300 or $400 for each of the offices, buyer’s, seller’s, and loan. Furthermore, I know of loan agents who extract larger commissions because “it’s such a hard loan.” It does make the loan harder, but not by another point of origination’s worth. Wouldn’t you like to have extra money for essentially the same work? I assure you that your average real estate agent and loan officer are no different than most folks.

There is nothing wrong with this practice, so long as everybody knows what’s going on. But it’s certainly not something you want to do if you have a choice.

Caveat Emptor

Related Party Transfers of Real Estate – Family, Corporate, or Partners

One of the things that has a lot of issues is any transaction between related people. Actually, this is not limited to purely family transactions, but applies also to transfers among partnerships and their partners, corporations and their officers

The market theory holding that the value of a property is what is agreed to between a willing buyer and a willing seller is subject to the proviso that neither buyer nor seller has a reason to inflate or deflate what the property is worth to them. If the parties are related, there is an obvious reason to think that this may not necessarily be the case. Parents do things for their children all the time, siblings for each other, and as you’re probably aware if you work in corporate America, major stockholders, investors, and executives often manipulate corporate versus personal transactions for less than wholesome reasons. Partnerships do the darnedest things, as well.

The issue, as far as the lender goes, is that they are trying to safeguard their money. Lending is a risk based business, and the lender wants to know that they are not taking more of a risk than they intend to when they take on this loan.

Let’s say Jane Jones is CEO of SuperColossal Corporation. She wants to manipulate her compensation, so she has SuperColossal sell her property for half its real value.

Now this is actually okay by most lenders, if not securities regulators, IRS agents, et al. The loan is based upon the purchase price, the appraisal comes in double the purchase amount, and the lender assumes less risk than they price the loan for. Remember, the property is valued based upon LCM: Lower of Cost (purchase price) or Market value. When market value comes in high, the lender is covered. What isn’t so cool is if Jane Jones sells SuperColossal the property back at twice its value. If the corporation gets a loan for 75 percent of value, that’s at least a third of the lender’s money they’re not going to get back in case of default, which becomes likely when Jane is fired and the new CEO asks why they are paying the loan when they owe half again what the property is worth.

Needless to say, the lenders want to guard against that. Many lenders will not do related party transactions, period. For the ones that do, they will want to be very careful on the appraisal, which has now become their only guard against getting into an indefensible position. Many times, lenders may require related party transactions to go through certain appraisers, they may require in house appraisers, they may require multiple appraisals, and they may require that there be no contact between principals and appraisers. Whatever their required precautions, they need to be followed, as failing to do so will cause the loan to be rejected.

I’m going over this to make a point. Many lenders have other requirements as well. Some may require full documentation only, others require that the loans have full recourse (they can come after you legally if they lose money). Each and every lender creates their own policy, and if your transaction is between related parties, it is probably more important to inquire about related party transfer policy and requirements than it is to get a good rate at a competitive price. Not much use having a great quote if you can’t meet the lender’s requirements. Even worse if it causes you to waste time with a lender whose requirements you cannot meet, and now your deadline for the transaction is here and you don’t have a loan, and so cannot complete the transaction.

Caveat Emptor

Probate and Foreclosure and Planning Ahead

This question brought someone to my site:

If my house is going into foreclosure but the house is also in probate, can the lender actually go forward with the foreclosure sale while the house is in probate?

The short answer is yes.

The Trust Deed (or Mortgage Note) that was signed by the now deceased undefined gives a security interest in the property to that lender in exchange for money. The lender lived up to their end of the bargain. That security interest is valid until the loan is paid off. It is not removed by the death of the person that signed over the security interest.

Probate takes an absolute minimum of nine months. During this time, the court will likely allow those members of your family to continue to live there, but they will not likely approve disposition of the asset except in an emergency, and that emergency is going to cost your heirs money for the courts, and money for the disposition. On the other hand, the lender still needs to get paid according to the terms of the contract, and they are entitled to foreclose if the terms are not being met. I’m not a lawyer, but I’ve never heard of an estate being permitted to declare bankruptcy, which some living folks use to temporarily stave off foreclosure, almost always to their eventual major detriment. Since your executor is claiming that your estate cannot pay its bills and rarely are you earning any more money, declaring bankruptcy would seem like an open and shut case of “the creditors get all of the assets and your heirs get nothing.” Probably not what anybody who’s part of the situation wants.

There are simple steps possible to avoid probate for major assets. A trust is probably the most flexible of these, in that the trust owns the asset and the successor trustee takes over the management and within the limits of the trust, does what needs to be done without the courts getting involved. Flexible, much cheaper than getting a probate court involved, and your heirs get control right away. But it requires planning ahead (which many people are loath to do, being in denial about the idea of death) and an upfront investment.

Given the fact that there is a loan and a Trust Deed against the property, somebody is going to have to make those payments until the loan is paid off, whether by outright payoff, refinancing, or sale. Given that in the absence of a trust, your heirs probably are not going to have access to any liquid wealth you left either as it is also locked up in probate, the odds are that your heirs are either going to have to come up with the cash out of pocket, or the property is going to be foreclosed upon.

Now there are some good options. If your heirs are wealthy and have the cash, perhaps some one or combination of them will make the payments in the interim if it’s been agreed they will be compensated later. Not likely, I’ll admit, and they’re likely to drive a bargain for larger eventual replacement. In some instances, the probate judge may agree to taking out a Home Equity Line Of Credit (HELOC) to make the payments, but somebody’s going to have to be able to qualify to make the payments, and a dead person is not on the list of options, which means somebody still living is going to have to do it. The rates on these are typically horrendous, and cost a lot more than a little bit of planning.

Another excellent option is life insurance. Life insurance passes (usually) tax free on death outside of probate to a named beneficiary. Therefore, it’s available pretty much right away to pay bills and stuff. It’s also leveraged money, so a few dollars now buys more dollars when you need them. The difficulty is that you’ve got to have it beforehand. There’s that planning thing rearing it’s ugly head again, and the upfront investment of the premium dollars for the life insurance policy. Finally, any money created by this becomes the property of those beneficiaries, and there is no way to compel them to spend the money on bills of the estate. If the beneficiary is the estate, well, the money is locked up in probate again, and you’ve got to get the probate judge to agree with doing the necessary.

Another option is the named beneficiary Transfer on Death feature of most investment accounts. These also transfer outside of probate to named beneficiaries. Problem is, they require the investment of those dollars beforehand, and they also require that you keep the beneficiaries current, and all of this requires, once again, planning. The money also becomes the property of the beneficiaries, just like life insurance, and if there’s no named beneficiary, it gets locked up in probate.

There is no free, no-planning-necessary, magic bullet. I strongly suspect it’s all part of the various Lawyers Full Employment Acts, but you’ve got to take the system as it exists. At the very least, you’ve got to do some planning ahead, and an upfront investment is probably going to return itself several times over. Remember, everyone is going to die sometime – I know of precisely zero exceptions thus far in the history of the world. Denial of this simple fact simply digs you in deeper, and puts your heirs in line to have to lose or waste a major portion of what you would have left covering for your deficiency, as is evidenced by the person who asked this question.

Caveat Emptor

Lump Sum Payments on a Mortgage and Alternative Investments

This one came from a search engine:

amortization of real estate loans early payoff based on a lump sum payment

This is one of the smart things you can do. Not necessarily the smartest, mind you, but smart. The question is if there’s a better way to get a return on that money, wither by paying down a higher interest debt or by investing the money in a new asset. If you owe thousands of dollars on a credit card at twenty-four percent when your mortgage is at six, why would you want to pay down a tax deductible six percent instead of a non-deductible twenty four?

Similarly, if you’ve can earn ten percent somewhere else with the money, why do you want to pay your six percent loan down? Net of taxes, a six percent loan costs you about 4.5 percent, depending upon your tax bracket. Even if the return is not tax deferred, the net return on ten percent is somewhere over seven percent for most folks. Say you are in the twenty-eight percent tax bracket and the ten percent is completely taxed every year. $10,000 over the course of 15 years will turn into $28,374 if invested. If it’s fully tax deferred, it turns into $41,772. For comparison with other numbers later on in the essay, at twenty-seven years the numbers are $65,352 and $131,099, respectively. Not half bad.

Suppose you’ve got the cash flow to instead buy another property? That puts the power of leverage to work for you, and if you can rent out one of your properties or something, possibly multiply your money by a factor of ten within a few years. When you put ten percent down, and your new property appreciates ten percent while giving you a few dollars per month of cash flow, that’s smart investing. At seven percent annual appreciation (historical average), you’ve doubled your purchase price in a little over ten years. A three hundred thousand dollar property will likely be a six hundred thousand dollar property in about ten years (It’s just numbers), while you’ve paid the loan down from $270,000 to about $226,000. Even if your expenses of selling are seven percent, your gross is $558,000, less the $226,000 you’ve paid the loan down to, and you’ve come away from the property with $332,000, not counting those few dollars per month you netted after paying your expenses. Sure there are places and properties that don’t pencil out, and being a landlord is a headache, but as you can see the potential rewards are substantial if it does “pencil out”.

Now, let’s say you do this every nine years on a three to one split, and 1031 Exchange the first two at least. After nine years you have $281,267 pre-tax, net in your 1031 account. You then turn around and buy three $600,000 properties. You end up with three loans of about $506,000 each. Assuming net zero cash flow on the properties, after nine more years, you have three loans at $434,100, netting you $1,775,286 into your 1031 accounts, which you then roll into three more properties each at $1.2 million purchase price. Your loans are $1,000,000 each, but you rent them for enough money to break even on expenses. After nine years, you sell all of these properties, and end up with just a little under $10,750,000 net of sales costs in your pocket before tax, which at long term capital gains rates (15%) nets you $9.13 million or thereabouts. Now, you did start with three times as much money, and nobody in their right mind sells off nine highly appreciated properties in one year, and you did have the headaches of being a landlord on an increasingly widespread basis for those twenty-seven years, but this illustrates the money to be made for the same investment. Patience and leverage working for you over time are far more powerful than any quick flip.

But assuming there are no better alternatives, it is a smart idea to pay down your mortgage. Here’s why: Let’s say your balance is $270,000 at six percent, and you pay your loan balance down by $10,000. Your regular payment was $1618.78, and it still is, but interest is $1350 of that. Only $268.78 would normally be applied to principal. Yeah, you’ve just sent them about six months of payments – but it just paid your loan down by three years of principal payments. Assuming you never sell and never refinance and never pay an extra penny again, you will be done in month 324 – saving yourself thirty-six payments for a total savings of $58,276. Not to mention that if you do refinance, you’ll pay lower fees. Not in the league of some of the alternatives above, but still a nice return on investment. Definitely beats spending the money.

Caveat Emptor

Losing Property Value with Highly Leveraged Properties

In one of my articles somebody wrote in the comments about going upside-down on their mortgage:

What happens if the property value falls and becomes far less than the loan ammount? (POP) Lets say you get a loan for $280,000 on a home that was $330,00 and then three years later is is only worth $150,000, but you still owe $250,000 on it?

Now “upside-down” in the context of a mortgage is just slang for owing more than the property is theoretically worth. This is a tough situation to be in, and there’s not much that can be done while you’re in it except get through it. Before, yes. After, yes. During, no.

I’ve predicted that this is going to be a widespread phenomenon over the next few years, and it’s going to cause a world of hurt, but it doesn’t need to include YOU, unless this has already happened, and I thought Sandy Eggo, where I live, to be on the bleeding edge of bubble problems, and appraisers are still able to justify near peak values even here.

Surviving being upside down is actually pretty easy if you have the correct loan. I bought near the peak of the last cycle, and was upside down myself for little while. If you take nothing else away from this article, understand that the only time your current home value is important is when you sell or when you refinance. If you don’t need to either sell or refinance, it does not matter what the value of your home is. It could be twenty-nine cents. It’s still a good place to live. You’ve still got the loan you always did. You should be able to keep on keeping on until the situation corrects. Prices will come back sooner or later.

The key is to have a sustainable loan. I did. I had a five year fixed period, during which time the market recovered and I paid down my loan. By the time I went to refi, five years later, things were better.

This is the real sin of the local real estate and mortgage industry. Yeah, the bubble’s going to pop, and everybody knows it. Actually, it’s already had significant price deflation. But if they had been putting folks into longer term sustainable loans, they’d be fine. Instead we’ve had about forty percent of purchase money loans being negative amortization and another forty percent being two year fixed interest only loans. The period of low payments for the former, and the fixed, interest only periods for the latter, are going to expire while prices are still down. That would be tolerable if the people could make the new payment, but if they could have made the new payment, they would have been in longer term fixed rate fully amortizing loans in the first place. What’s going to happen next is kind of like when Wiley Coyote looks down.

I’ve been telling people there are no magic solutions to the problem for over three years now. If you borrow the money, you’re going to have to pay it back. Make the payments now or make them later, and the later it gets the worse it will be. There is no such thing as free lunch, and those who pretend that there is are not your friends. The Universe knows how much more money I could have made by keeping my mouth shut and screwing the customer. $100,000 is a conservative estimate. Instead of struggling to convince people to do the smart thing these last eighteen months, I could have been glad-handing everyone in sight and making a mint off of ignorant people. But then there would be court dates looming in my future (those in my profession who were not so careful are going to be in for a hard time, and I hope you’ll forgive my schadenfreude when it happens. Those con artists masquerading as professionals stole a lot of money from me and from the people who became their clients by convincing them they could afford more house than they could, or by not admitting to the tremendous downside of what they were offering the client. “No, he just wants you to do business with him and he can’t do what I’m doing.” I could have gotten the loans, as I informed more than one of the clients I lost, and on better terms, but I wanted them to know the downsides. So I lost the business to the con artist who pretended there wasn’t one. There were downsides, but people want to believe the con artist).

What to do if it has become obvious you’re headed for the canyon? Figure out what your payment is going to do for the next several years. Determine if you’re going to be able to make that payment before it happens to you. If not, refinance now if you can, sell if you can’t. Pay the prepayment penalty if you have to, because given a choice between a prepayment penalty and foreclosure, the former is much better.

If you want to refinance, find a long term fixed rate loan. Minimum of five years fixed, fully amortized. Since thirty year fixed rate loans are actually about the same rate as 5/1 ARMS right now, I’ve been recommending the thirty year fixed for almost everyone. This is a loan that never changes, and you never have to refinance because the payment is going to jump.

The critical factor for refinancing is the appraisal. The Critical factor for the appraisal is how much value can be justified by the appraiser. In order to justify the value, there have to be comparable sales in your neighborhood. The appraisers don’t always have to choose the most recent; they have the option of choosing better matches for your home – provided they are recent enough. May the universe help you if there are model matches selling for less in your condominium complex, because there the lender is going to insist on the most recent sales. All the more reason to act now, while you can, rather than wait and hope.

If you’re already over the chasm and prices have fallen, consult some local agents about selling. Short payoffs are no fun, but in the vast majority of cases, they’re better than foreclosure if you’re not going to be able to make your payments. At least when they’re done, they’re done. Foreclosure is a hole that keeps on draining you long after you’ve lost the house, and after it’s cost you thousands of dollars more than a short sale (and if sale prices continue down, that 1099 love note from the lender after the foreclosure is going to be worse). As for waiting, well, if it’s an honest consensus that things are coming right back, but here in San Diego the Association of Realtors had not yet admitted there’s price deflation despite it going on for almost a full year. They’ve been playing games with reported figures to make it seem like things are rosy. There are obvious motivations for this, not all of which are explained by self-interested greed, but it’s not something you can paper over and ignore indefinitely.

Who’s to blame for the impending train wreck? I’m not really into blame, but here are several targets. Unscrupulous lenders and agents bear a lot of blame, but not the exclusive burden. Panic and greed on behalf of the buyers is certainly a significant part. And if several folks are telling you that the best loan they have is five and a half or six percent or even six and a half, shouldn’t a normal, rational adult be suspicious of an offer that’s theoretically at one percent? I can maybe believe somebody who offers something a quarter of a percent better than the competition. Half a percent might be just barely possible. Somebody who offers money, of all things, that’s less expensive by an interest rate factor of five isn’t telling you the whole truth. (Unfortunately, in this case, these loans are so easy to sell on the basis of minimum payment and nominal rate, it got to the point where these loans were what the vast majority of agents and loan officers were talking about)

As a final note, 125% loans do exist, but they are ugly. Very ugly. Not as ugly as Negative Amortization, but ugly, and the payments and interest rates aren’t any more stable than the real terms on those Negative Amortization loans. They don’t do stated income, either, or nonrecourse. You stiff those folks, they will get the money out of you.

Prices are going to come back up. It’s as predictable as the fact that they were going to fall. Can’t tell you when, anymore than I could tell you when exactly they would start falling. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. The trick is to have a sustainable situation in the meantime, and this means a loan with payments you can make every month, month after month, indefinitely until the loan is paid off or you have the ability to refinance or sell. If you’ve got this, someday you’ll be telling yourself how happy you are that you bought that property. If you don’t have it, get it. If you can’t get it, get out.

Caveat Emptor.