One of the two most undersold financial products is long term care insurance. Yet it is a critical need, ranking just below disability insurance in the estimation of most financial planning agencies.
Long Term Care is already a large part of our nation’s health care costs. In 2002, the last year I actively worked as a financial planner, in the state of California, approximately 2 percent of the recipients of Medi-Cal (California’s version of Medicaid) were in long term care of one sort or another. Those 2 percent used approximately 47 percent of the budget. A little over fifty percent of the population is expected to need long term care of a year or longer, and this percentage has been rising and is expected to rise further. With medical science able to stabilize people to live longer lives, the probability of people living years after they reach that level of frailty rises.
The reason they use so much money is simple. Once you’re in them, you tend to be in them for a long time. You may be in the hospital overnight, or for a week, and it costs a thousand dollars or two per day. Long term care may only cost $150 to $200 per day, but it costs that much every day for months, if not years or the rest of your life. So one seventh to one tenth the money per day, but for a hundred or a thousand times longer.
End of life is not the only time someone uses long term care. Approximately 40 percent of the inhabitants of long term care facilities are under the age of 65. For whatever reason, they have a disability or a condition that requires around the clock watchful care.
California licenses two types of residential long term care facility: Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNF), and Residential Care Facilities (RCF). The SNF has more medical requirements to meet, and is therefore the more expensive of the two, both to operate and to reside in. There are also Senior Daycare Centers (much like child daycare centers) and various in-home options.
Many people think that the federal medicare program covers long term care. It doesn’t. The Federal Medicare program provides only a very small part of long term care. For a one time stay, it will cover the costs of a stay of up to twenty days, and pick up days 21 through 100 with a copay of about $110 per day. This means that for the first three months, you’re out about nearly $9000. After that, you’re on your own, as far as the federal government is concerned. So if you’re talking about hospice care for a terminal patient, Medicare may or may not stretch to cover it, depending upon how close they were to death when the doctors gave up on curative treatment.
Even so-called “medi-gap” policies only cover a tiny amount of long term care. The reason why is because its costly insurance. So for the same reason you don’t find cars on your supermarket shelves across from the bread, you have to go to a special policy to get significant coverage.
The median billing here in California runs about two hundred dollars per day, and it can go much higher for Skilled Nursing Facilities. This works out to $73,000 per year for as long as it lasts. Not a big deal if you’re a multi-millionaire, but if all you’ve managed to save is $150,000, two years and it is gone. So for most folks, self insurance just doesn’t cut it.
Now there is one program that will cover Long Term Care – state-run Medicaid (called Medi-Cal here in California). Unfortunately, in order to get coverage, you’ve got to pay yourself down into practical poverty first. Nor are you allowed to give assets away or put them into trusts. The various states have “lookback” periods ranging from thirty months to five years prior to your application for benefits. Anything given away in that period is subject to asset recovery – in other words, the person you gave it to is going to have to cough it back up, even if it was already spent.
Let me give you an idea of what poverty looks like. Many people make a big deal of the “community spouse” regulations, that permit the keeping of $2000 per month and eighty-some thousand dollars of liquid assets, as well as a life interest for a married couple in one piece of real estate. First concern, let’s say hubby goes in to care while wife stays out. Can wife live on $2000 per month? Maybe, if she doesn’t have any huge medical problems. But if she’s not drawing a pension herself, most of income is likely to be attached for hubby’s care, and it doesn’t take long to draw down $80,000 in assets when that’s all you’ve got to live on. Plus medicare is not the greatest care in the world, so there is always the need to purchase side items. Also, these places are not high margin. They are not making money hand over fist, and they make a truly rotten investment. Many of them go bankrupt, and the ones that survive and provide good care tend to be in lower cost areas. So if you live in Los Angeles, your spouse could well be in a home in Barstow because that’s the only place you could find that had a spare bed. Far away means visitors are rare, and visitors being common is one of the best predictors of how good the treatment will be, and how well they will respond.
Finally, this is just not what happens, statistically speaking. What usually happens is when one spouse gets sick, the healthy spouse takes care of them as well as they can for as long as they can, either with or without assistance. Then the first spouse is gone, and at some later point in time the second spouse becomes ill, and that’s when long term care happens. Less that ten percent of the people in long term care have living spouses, and this includes counting the situations where both spouses are in long term care. (this .pdf document has a decent explanation)
Many attorneys will advertise structured trusts and other weird schemes to get you to qualify for Medicaid care while still retaining your assets. Spend a couple of thousand dollars on a one time basis, the pitch goes, and you’ll be able to shelter your assets from the state. Unfortunately for this, the states narrow the gaps in the regulations every year, because they want to catch cheaters and people doing precisely this. A good general rule is that if you own the asset, if you control it, or if it can be used for your benefit, the state will force it to be spent or attach it in order to provide your care. Medicaid was meant for the poverty stricken, not to provide medical care for the wealthy. So it’s a little change here for $1000, another little change there for $1000, and pretty soon you’ve spent all your money on the attorney. Best way to nip this in the bud is to ask said attorney point blank: “So you’re going to write out a commitment to pay for my care yourself if this doesn’t work, right?” Needless to say, this is not going to happen.
Furthermore, assuming it does work out and you manage to retain assets while the state pays for your care. Well then, I say, “Congratulations! You’ve won WELFARE!”, in my best Monty Hall voice, and you can imagine the curtains coming back on “Let’s Make A Deal” to reveal their gorgeous hostess, smiling from ear to ear while holding the lead on an old sway-backed donkey.
The medicaid package is not a lavish one. Remember I told you that nursing homes average billing is about $200 per day, and that they go bankrupt a lot? Well here in California, the state will pay about $110 per day for medicaid patients in long term care. You should be able to imagine the implications from there. I’ve visited a couple of medicaid wings, and the “Eeewww!” factor is significant. It starts with the smell, which hits even people like me who don’t have much of a sense of smell, and goes downhill from there.
The final option to avoid this is purchase Long Term Care Insurance. There are two major types, with one subtype available for people who are lucky enough to live in one of four states. There is non-tax-qualified, tax qualified, and for those lucky enough to live in California, Conneticut, New York, and Indiana, there is a superior brand of tax-qualified, Partnership.
Second Trust Deeds and Loan Subordination
When you have more than one loan on your property, there are some issues you should be aware of. Keep in mind the fact that some states still use the mortgage system, requiring court action to foreclose, as opposed to Deed of Trust, which does not. For practical purposes they are similar, yet I have never done significant work in a mortgage state so there may be small but significant differences.
Each loan is secured by a different Deed of Trust. Two loans, two Deeds of Trust. A Deed of Trust is a three way contract between the borrower (called the trustor), the lender (called the beneficiary), and a third party known as the Trustee, to whom title is nominally conveyed for purposes of selling the property if you default on the loan. The Trustee and the Beneficiary are often the same, and there while there is no legal impediment I’m aware of to the Trustor and Trustee being the same, I also cannot imagine a lender agreeing to it.
Trustees can be changed, and this is accomplished via a document known as “Substitution of Trustee,” which is required to be recorded with the appropriate county in every state I’ve done business in.
Each Trust Deed operates independently of all others there may be against a given property. They take priority in order of date. When a Trust Deed is recorded against an property on which there already is an active Trust Deed, it automatically becomes a Second Trust Deed, if another happens it is a Third Trust Deed, and so on.
The reason they have the ordinal is because they are paid off in the order they happened. Suppose the property is sold, and the sale price is not sufficient to pay all of the debts. The trust deeds are not paid proportionally; The First Trust Deed is paid off in full before the holder of the Second Trust Deed gets a penny. Then the Second is paid before the third, and so on. This is why Second trust Deeds carry higher rates than First, because they are riskier loans for the lender. As I’ve said elsewhere, just because the property is sold doesn’t mean you’re clear. If there is not sufficient money from the sale to pay all debts, you can expect the lender to hit you with a form 1099, reporting that you have income from debt forgiveness, and you will be expected to pay taxes on it.
If for whatever reason you pay off your First Trust Deed, the Second automatically goes into the first position, and any subsequent loan goes into second position. This is most common when people go to refinance the loan secured by their First Trust Deed. Even if you do not particularly want to pay off your Second Trust Deed, it may be the best thing to do. Because what happens if you just pay off the First Trust Deed (only) and get a new Trust Deed, is that the new Trust Deed will go into the second position. Unfortunately, in order to get the quoted rates for a primary loan, it is a requirement that the loan be in first position. If it’s not in first position, they will not actually fund it. In short, no loan.
This is not necessarily an impasse. Many times, the holder of the second trust deed, because their loan was priced to be second in line anyway, may agree to Subordinate their loan to the new loan, which is a fancy way of saying stand in line behind the new trust deed holder.
They don’t have to do this, and there is no way, other than paying off their loan in full, to force them to do so. Some companies never subordinate, while some others are never willing to stand second in line at all, and others are in both categories.
For those that will consider it, they are going to stipulate some conditions. First of all, the new loan is likely going to have to put the borrower into a position where it is easier, or at least no more difficult, to make payments and pay off the loan. So monthly payment usually cannot rise.
Second, they are going to want their trust deed to be in no worse of a position than it was when the loan was originally approved, as regards the value of the home being able to pay their loan off too if for some reason either loan is defaulted. They may even require than you agree to a higher rate, higher payments, or a different loan altogether – as I said, there is nothing you can do to force them to cooperate.
Assuming that they are willing to cooperate, they will require that the entire process on the prospective new loan be essentially complete – that is, ready to draw documents and fund when the Right of Rescission expires after three days, before they will even look at it. Some lenders take 48 hours to look at a subordination request, others take up to six weeks, and it can be even longer. For any given lender, it takes as long as it takes.
There is also going to be a fee involved. They have to pay their people to look at the loan situation and make certain it still falls within guidelines. They’re the ones doing you the favor, they certainly are not going to do the favor for free. Whether the Subordination request is eventually approved or not, the subordination fee is likely to be non-refundable, a sunk cost that you are not going to get back even if it’s not approved.
Even more important than that, however, subordination takes time. No loan quote is real unless locked, all locks are for a specified period of time, no lock is good past the original period of time unless you pay an extension fee, and if you need to lock for a longer period of time in order to subordinate, either the rate, the cost, or possibly both will be higher. Since this can add anywhere from two days under idea conditions to six weeks or more for a refinance that takes three weeks to get approved and get funded in the best of times, this means a longer lock period becomes advisable. Most often, the extra costs mean that it’s more cost effective to just pay off both loans rather than subordinating the second to the new loan.
Since Home Equity Lines of Credit are always secured by a trust deed, they count as any other second mortgage would. You’d be amazed how often people do not disclose Home Equity Lines of Credit even when directly asked about them. They are only hurting themselves, but they often get angry to no good purpose when, if they had been upfront about them, the loan officer could have designed around any difficulties. Furthermore, people are often resistant to the idea of paying off and closing Home Equity Lines, despite the fact that they are easy to get. I’ve had people stonewall, utterly in denial that this is a Deed of Trust opon their residence until I have the title company fax me a copy of the Trust Deed, and reference it with the Preliminary Report, and ask to see the Reconveyance (which is a fancy way of saying the piece of paper proving that the trust deed has been paid off). If it’s a legitimate lien, we have to deal with it. Actually, we have to deal with it if it’s not a legitimate lien as well, just in a different manner. On the other hand, about eighteen months ago I had some seasonal resident clients whose ex-caretaker had managed to take out a loan against the property. It does happen, and it’s a mess, but most times it’s just the people themselves who weren’t told – and didn’t figure out – that this financing agreement they signed for the pool or air conditioner or roof was a second trust deed on their house.
To summarize then, second loan means second trust deed, if you refinance they must be paid off or subordinated, and subordination takes time such that it may be better to pay it off than go through the rigamarole of subordination.
Caveat Emptor
Negative Amortization Loans – More Unfortunate Details
My article on Option ARM and Pick a Pay – Negative Amortization Loans is one of my most popular. It’s number one for multiple search engines and several ways of running the search. If I don’t get at least 20 hits a day on it, it must be a sign that the public has caught on to this loan’s horrific gotcha! On the other hand, given the number that are still written, I can get very depressed at how small a percentage of the population does simple research.
I intentionally left a lot of what goes on with these things out of that post, simply because I want to keep these posts readable and comprehensible within the space of no more than half an hour. But I keep getting hits asking questions I didn’t deal with, so here goes:
A Negative Amortization loan is defined as any loan where the minimum required payment is less than the interest charges. Regular loans pay off part of the balance every month, whereas negative amortization loans typically have an increasing balance because the difference between the interest charges and what you pay is added to your balance owed.
Because the name “Negative Amortization” causes some difficulty in marketing, they are sold by all kinds of friendly sounding names. “Option ARM” (if you look at my article on loan types here, these are the about the only “true” ARMs with a significant portion of the residential loan market). “Pick A Pay.” “Option Payment.” “Cash Flow ARM.” I’ve seen all kinds of combinations of these, as well.
Negative Amortization loan rates are typically quoted based upon a “nominal” (“in name only”) interest rate. This rate is not the rate of interest that the people who have them are really being charged. It’s a thing for purposes of computing the minimum payment. In other words, the minimum payment is computed by using this rate instead of the actual rate that you are being charged. They are being marketed more heavily right now than at any time in the previous twenty-odd years. If you are quoted a rate of 1%, 1.25%, 1.95%, 2.95%, or anything else under about 5% right now, they are talking about a negative amortization loan. If you look at the Truth-In-Lending form, it will list an APR somewhere in the sixes, usually several entire percentage points above the nominal rate. Another way to tell is the presence of several “Options” for payment. If they talk about three of four payment options, guess what? They’re talking about a Negative Amortization loan. Note that this is a different situation from “A paper” loans that have no prepayment penalty, in that you are explicitly given these payment options, and may not have any others. “A paper” loans, the minimum payment at least covers the interest (if it’s an interest only loan) or actually pays the loan down, and anything extra you pay is applied to principal to pay the loan down faster. I pay extra every month but that’s my decision, my choice of amount, not theirs. A negative amortization loan gives you a limited number of choices. Furthermore, there are more of the so-called “one extra dollar” prepayment penalties on negative amortization loans than any other loan type.
Negative Amortization is generally a bad thing because with over 95 percent of those who have them, over 95 percent of the time they are making the minimum payment. That’s why they got them, because they couldn’t afford the real payment. So their balance increases. They owe more money every month, and due to compound interest, every month the difference between what they owe and what they pay gets wider. This can only end one of three ways. They sell the house. They refinance the house. They get to “recast” point on the loan. None of these is good.
If you sell, the loans come out of proceeds, and the bank gets more money than you originally borrowed, usually plus a prepayment penalty. I keep using a $270,000 loan amount as an example, so let’s look at what happens. The minimum payment will be $868.42. But your real rate is not fixed, and even if you’ve got a good margin and your rate doesn’t rise in upcoming months (It will rise), your real rate is something like 6.2%. That very first month, your interest charge is $1395.00. You have $526.58 added to your loan balance. Take this out one year. Your principal has become $276,501.57, an increase of $6501.57. Now the minimum payment increases by 7.5% (another characteristic of this loan) to $933.56. Take it out another 12 months, now at 6.25% (and I’m being really stingy with rate hikes, given how much I think the underlying rates will go up) and you now have a balance of $283,561.76. Now you sell, and as opposed to selling it two years ago, you have $13561 less from the sale than you otherwise would have had. Plus a prepayment penalty of $9484.00, a total of $23,045 the loan has cost you not counting whatever your initial fees were. This is money you are not going to have to buy your next property with. Not to mention that if the rise in value doesn’t cover it, you may find yourself short – getting nothing, and maybe even getting a 1099 form for the IRS that says you owe them taxes.
Let’s say you don’t sell, but refinance, and unlike roughly 70% of everyone with one of these loans, you actually make it to the end of the prepayment penalty period, three years. Your payment has been $998.70 for these 12 months, but your balance has still increased to $291,815.16. Let’s say rates have magically dropped back to where they are now. You get a 30 year fixed rate loan at par at 5.875%. Your payment will be $1746.90, as opposed to $1597.15 if you just did that in the first place. But wait, it get’s better!
In the fourth year, your payment goes to $1063.84. But nine months in, you hit the recast point! Your balance has grown to $297,000 – 10% over what it was to bein with. It’s a thirty year loan, and now it starts amortizing at the real rate for the last 315 months, or until you manage to dispose of it, whichever comes first. Assuming your rate is still “only” 6.5%, your payment jumps to $1967.60 in the forty-sixth month, and this payment is no more fixed than your rate is, which is to say, not at all.
Let’s say you have one of the loans with a higher recast – 20 percent instead of 10. Your balance goes to $299,010.60. Then the final year of artificially lowered payment, $1128.98 per month is applied to your loan, but it’s accruing $1619.64 in interest and rising. Your loan balance is $305,077 at the end of your minimum payment period. Now your payment (assuming your real rate is still 6.5%, which I think unlikely) goes to $2059.90. If you’re able to get a thirty year fixed rate loan at today’s rates, your payment is $1825.35. If you couldn’t afford $1600 per month in the first place, what make you think you’ll be able to afford any of these alternatives? The needless increase in payment amounts to sucking $1.34 per hour out of your pocket, or if you want to think of it another way, you’d have to make $3.00 per hour – $500 plus per month – more to qualify at the end of the period with all that added to your loan, as opposed to right now. And that’s assuming the rates are as low in five years, which I do not believe will be the case.
Additionally, I attended a credit provider’s seminar last month, and as I said then, credit rating agencies are currently considering making the fact that you have a negative amortization loan to be a heavy negative on your credit report, all by itself. From the writing above, it should not be hard to see why. Someone who has a negative amortization loan is not making a “break-even” payment. Their balance is increasing. This indicates a cash-flow problem, and cannot go on indefinitely. When the lowered payments expire, they find themselves in a nasty situation, worse than it would be if they had just gotten a different loan in the first place. So if the fact that you have a negative amortization loan knocks you down sixty, eighty, or a hundred points, there is a good likelihood that you will not qualify for any loan nearly so good as you would otherwise have gotten. The last news I had was that they were looking at the modeling data for exactly how strongly it influences your chance of a 90 day late. I don’t work for Fair-Isaacson, but my guess, based upon working with people who have negative amortization loans, is that it’s going to be towards the higher end of the range I cited.
In short, because most people concern themselves with quoted payment, not interest rate and type of loan, these things are most often sold via marketing gimmicks and hiding their true nature. Those selling them do not concern themselves with what will happen to you after they’ve gotten their commission check. They are designed (and appropriate for) a couple of specific niches that most people do not fall into. Last set of figures I saw was that they are the primary loan on about 40 percent of all purchases here locally – and owner occupied purchase is not one of the niches they are designed for. An appropriate proportion of the populace to have these might be four tenths of one percent, a figure a hundred times smaller. Shop by interest rate and type of loan, and these look a lot less attractive. As I said, the real rate on these right now (if you’ve got a good margin) is about 6.2 percent. At par, loans are available that are really fixed for five years at about 5.5 percent, or thirty years at about 5.875 percent, no hidden tricks, no surprises, no gotcha!s. These are not only lower rate, but also better loans.
Caveat Emptor
The Three Day Right of Recission
One reason to check your referral logs every day: Sometimes you can find great material for an article. I got one about the three day right of rescission.
This is a feature (or bug, depending upon your situation) with every refinance on a home that is a primary residence. The reason it exists is that until you see the final documents at signing, there is literally no way to prove that what your prospective loan provider quoted you on the Mortgage Loan Disclosure Statement (California) or Good Faith Estimate (the other 49 states) is actually what they intend to deliver. There’s a lot of paperwork I can put under your nose to make it look like that’s what I intend to deliver, but until you have the final loan documents sitting in front of you, none of it means anything. Just because they give you those wonderful forms like a MLDS or GFE or TILA or anything else does not mean that is what they intend to deliver. The only document that is required to be an accurate accounting of the loan and all the money that goes into and comes out is the HUD-1, and that comes at the end of the process, and you get it at the same time as you sign the note.
I have said it before, but there are three documents you need to concentrate on at loan closing. Everything else is in support of those. They are the Trust Deed or Mortgage, the Note, and the aforementioned HUD-1. An unscrupulous lender certainly can slip stuff past you on other forms, but most won’t bother. These three forms will tell you about 99.9 percent of the shady dealings. Some lenders and brokers will actually train their loan officers in how to distract you from the numbers on these three documents.
Once you have signed all of the requisite paperwork to finalize your loan (the stuff you sign in front of a notary at the theoretical end of the process), there is potentially a waiting period that begins. Purchases have no federal right of rescission, nor do refinances of rental or investment property, but if it’s your primary residence and you are refinancing, you have three business days to call it off. Note that some states may broaden the right of rescission, and some may even lengthen it, but they can’t lessen what the federal government gives you.
As an aside, just because you have signed “final” documents does not necessarily mean your loan will fund. There are both “prior to docs” conditions as well as “prior to funding” conditions. The former means they must be satisfied before your final loan documents are generated, the latter means they must be satisfied as a condition of funding the loan. I want to emphasize that there will always be “prior to funding” conditions, but they should be routine things that make sense to do at that time, in that they cannot realistically be done any sooner. Many lenders, however, are moving “prior to docs” conditions to “prior to funding.” This has always been prevalent for so-called “hard money” loans, but recently subprime lenders in particular have been emulating their example. The reasoning for doing this is simple. Once you’ve signed documents, you are bound to them unless you exercise right of rescission. Once right of rescission expires, you are bound to them period, until they either fund the loan or give up on the possibility of funding it. I strongly advise you to ask for a copy of outstanding conditions on your loan commitment.
Assuming that there is a right of rescission applicable, once you have signed final documents, the clock starts ticking. The day you sign documents doesn’t count. Sundays and Holidays don’t count. It is possible that Saturdays don’t count, depending upon the law in your state. Here in California, Saturdays count unless they are holidays. It is three business days. So let’s say that you sign final documents with a notary on a Monday of a normal five day week. Tuesday, Wednesday, the Thursday all go by while you have still got your right of rescission. Thursday midnight the right of rescission expires, and the loan can fund on Friday. Note that no lender can or will fund a loan during your right of rescission period, and every so often an otherwise excellent loan officer will have you sign loan documents before some other conditions are finished so that the right of rescission will expire in timely fashion to fund your loan before your rate lock expires. Remember that if the rate is not locked, the rate is not real, but all locks have expirations.
Applicable rights of rescission cannot be waived, cannot be shortened, and cannot be circumvented. Ever. There literally is no provision to do so in the law. This is both intentional and, in my opinion, correct. Kind of defeats the purpose of having it, which is to give you a couple days to consult with professionals before it’s final, if it can be waived, because you can bet millions to milliamps that the sharks you are trying to protect folks from would have the folks sign such a document if it existed.
Just because the right of rescission has expired and the loan can be funded does not mean that it will be funded, much less on that day. For starters, good escrow officers will not request funding upon a Friday because the client will end up paying interest on both loans over the weekend for no good purpose. Once they request funding, the lender has up to two business days to provide it, and then the escrow officer has two business days to get everybody their money.
Also, remember those “prior to funding” conditions I spoke about a couple of paragraphs ago? If there’s something substantive, it usually should have been taken care of prior to signing docs, leaving procedural stuff for prior to funding. But sometimes it can be in your interest to move them, if it means your loan is more likely to fund within the lock period, so you don’t have to pay for lock extensions. On the other hand, there has been a movement towards making as many conditions prior to funding as possible, simply because once you have signed final documents you are more tightly bound to that lender.
In summary, if a right of rescission is applicable, start counting with the next business day after you sign final loan documents. After three business days, the right of rescission has expired and the loan can fund. Assuming a normal five day week, and that Saturday counts, as it does in every state I’ve worked in:
If you sign: Recission expires:
Monday — Thursday midnight
Tuesday — Friday midnight
Wednesday — Saturday midnight
Thursday — Monday midnight
Friday — Tuesday midnight
Saturday — Wednesday midnight
Sunday — Wednesday midnight
Caveat Emptor
Is the United States Worth Defending?
The question of where anyone’s priorities are begs the question of “Where do your loyalties lie?”
I am loyal first to the long term good of humanity. I want as many people as possible to live the best lives possible. I realize that this makes me sound like some sort of socialist or communist. Nothing could be further from the facts. As I’ve said before:
Except for killing tens of millions of people, sending large portions of the world economy backwards, causing billions to live in crushing poverty, setting the cause of personal liberty and human rights back decades, enriching and rewarding tyrants who oppress the people worse than any capitalist ever thought about doing, causing multi-decade famines in areas that once were breadbaskets, failing to feed its people for decades at a time, expanding the system of gulags worldwide, causing deadly and widespread environmental damage, literally destroying the means of production it inherited from its capitalist predecessors so nobody (except the rulers) got anything, stymieing the contributions billions of people could have made to the world,and doing its best to cover all of this up, including habitual executions of innocent people who simply stumbled on the wrong piece of evidence, I guess communism wasn’t so bad.
At least the nobles in feudalistic societies A) didn’t know any better, and B) Come the war, had an obligation/reason to stand in the front lines…
Each and every time it’s been tried, communism has ended up in the exact same place. It’s time to stop pretending this is a freak occurrence.
What’s the definition of insanity again?
and socialism is like communism lite. Oh it’s got high ideals and everything, but the facts are that it invariably ends up in stagnation and stratification of society, slow economic growth (if any), and little opportunity for people to advance themselves, leading to all sorts of problems. There is a thing called the socio-economic pyramid. It’s triangular in shape, with the point at the top. There are a few people at the very top, more a little lower down, more still the farther down you go, until at the bottom you get the largest number of people living in crushing poverty with no power to improve their position. Historically, this triangle has been the shape of every human society until the last couple of hundred years, and the majority of human societies even today.
Today in the United States and similar places with a market economy and a more or less free society, we can see indications that the triangle has become shaped more like a pear, or even a diamond if you’re an optimist. It is very plausible that within our lifetimes it may become apple-shaped. We still have a few people at the very top, then progressively more people until you get to a certain point, then you start seeing fewer again, and fewer still as you lower into the lower economic strata. What this means is a lower proportion of people who are poor by current standards.
This is a very good thing. It means we are making more effective use of our human capital than any society ever before in the annals of history. It means there are fewer members of the lowest economic strata (poverty level and below) than there are middle class people. It means more opportunity for those at the lower levels to climb into higher economic strata. As a percentage of the population, participation in the investment markets is higher than any other society any time in the history of the world. This means that we have spare wealth to invest in our own economic betterment. This means there is more wealth for investment to grow the economy, and more sources of more wealth if you have an idea that you can persuade people might Make Them Money. Furthermore, this means further developments that benefit us all, of whatever nature, are going to continue to come more and more quickly. I want my children to be able to explore the solar system, and their children to be able to explore the galaxy, and deal with whatever they meet on the best terms possible. It’s a matter of belief with me that other sentient species are out there, and that we are going to meet them eventually. It would be much better for our children’s children to meet them ten thousand light years away in ships that can do everything you hear talked about in science fiction, than in low earth orbit with present capabilities. Such is the case even if they’re so advanced that they are like magnanimous gods in their conduct towards us. If they are something less advanced and more predatory and our descendants are scrabbling over who has more subsistence level manual labor farms because we’ve exhausted earth’s resources, that could be deadly embarrassing. Not to mention that we’re all living better lives in the meantime.
I’m open to other systems of course. But those that have been tried repeatedly with the result of retaining, or returning to the old pyramid model, I’m not going to consider. It’s all very well and good to hold yourself out, as most socialists and communists do, as noble and promulgating the common good, but if the predictable effects of trying your socio-economic model are a return to the pyramid with yourself as one of the nobles, then we all know what is paved with good intentions and I hope you travel it soon.
One lesson that is consistent across history is that government is a horrible allocator of resources. Sometimes it may be the necessary allocator of resources, but that does not mean we shouldn’t look for alternatives. Government can be, and usually is, unduly influenced by those with current political power to keep them in their current position or improve it. Lest anyone think I’m talking purely about the wealthy, I’m not. Agricultural subsidies were not begun in the era of corporate farms, and they have created quite a few wealthy farmers. Indeed, the largest pieces of our government budgets are allocated for those who are powerful because of their large aggregate number of votes. Politicians aren’t afraid of offending the wealthy, they preach class warfare to the detriment of all of us quite often. They are afraid of offending large groups of voters, particularly organized voters. NAACP. NOW. AARP. Those are the names that cause politicans hearts to tremble in fear, not Rockefeller, Kennedy, and Ford, or even Gates or Buffett.
Nor is government efficient. Indeed, the primary goal of government officers seems, predictably, to be improving their own position. More money, larger budgets, supervise more employees, more highly paid – it’s time you got a raise! and a promotion! Never mind that the job could be done by a fraction of the personnel and at a fraction of the cost. Government is not set up to reward this. Until it’s spending its own money instead of taking it from the people, this will continue. Since government’s only source of significant revenue is taxation, that will be roughly never. Until government officers are spending their own money, they will endeavor to increase their budgets regardless of need. There are things government must do, but they should be as few as practical.
If it sounds like I’m talking economics rather than politics, the reason is that economics, usually bad economics, with bad history, is behind a large part of politics. A lot of people who do not understand it well denigrate capitalism because a few get very wealthy while many do not. Well, until recently, being wealthy was a very human capital intensive thing. This has changed, and is changing further, and capitalism and the free market economy have brought about the conditions for change. Everybody knows and has heard that democracy is the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried. Similarly, free market capitalism is the worst system – except for everything else that has ever been tried. Yes, it allows people to fail, sometimes spectacularly, but it is this freedom to fail together with rewarding those who succeed that causes the system to succeed. People respond to a system of rewards and punishments, particularly when they are incremental and fairly immediate. When they can succeed greatly, and be rewarded commensurately, they are more likely to take the kind of risks that benefit us all. The difference between 2 percent growth – like Europe is seeing – and 3.5 to 4 percent growth like the United States is not 1.5 to 2 percent. It is 75 percent plus. It’s the difference between 50 percent growth in a generation and hundred percent growth. Over a working lifetime of forty years, it’s the difference between doubling the economy and quadrupling it.
This has implications in the lowest economic strata as well as the highest. Poverty level in the United States is extremely well off in most of the rest of the world. It may take some time, but a rising economic tide really does lift all boats. Not only do people make more money here, but the necessities of life are cheaper. This further raises the effective standard of living. Poverty stricken people in the United States live as well as the middle class in most of europe. Why? Because our model is more free market than theirs. Because we try more things than they do. Because we are free to fail. A certain number of ideas are always going to be failures, but we try them because we have reason to believe that they will succeed. We aren’t required to prove to professional skeptics that it will succeed. And more of them do succeed than most people realize. Everybody quotes the old saw about only one business in five making it. But it isn’t true. Indeed, the fastest growing segment of our economy is those individuals who make a living selling their own expertise, and the reason they eventually go out of business is that someone in corporate america makes them a job offer too good to refuse.
I am also loyal to the United States. Yes, I want to improve it. But I also think the place where all of these reforms first came to be practiced, and where they are most assiduously practiced today, is worth defending. Especially as our main rivals practice governmental or economic systems that have been shown to be less advantageous or even a step back into the dark ages. Those we are at war with would take us back to a tribal society of city-states, where the priesthood has the real final say in all matters of justice, or societal norm, of what is and is not to be tolerated. Those at the top of their hierarchy may be civilized cosmopolitan men of the world, but those at the base are little different from medieval peasantry in their attitudes. We are forward looking, always trying to find a better way to do something. They would force us – all of us – into a cultural straightjacket that hardened in the eighth century. Those few at the top that we see, by virtue of their power and wealth, can get away with challenging their culture. For the vast majority of their culture, those in the lower economic strata of their pyramid, it is a straightjacket of thought, of behavior, and of any chance of advancement. This includes not only women, but all minorities, and all members of any other religions, or those who have none. They may grudgingly tolerate the presence of Christians because Mohammed told them to, but you are also distinctly second class citizens who had better keep to your place. Atheists and agnostics are not “peoples of the book” and their place in Islamic society is dependent upon being perceived to be members of the christian community.
So what we have achieved here in the United States is worth defending. The more so because cultures are subject not only to something akin to entropy, but also because despite the fact that the United States is the most powerful nation in the globe, we are not nearly as powerful as the rest of the world together. The high point of American power was right after World War II – had we wished to, we could have made a much stronger attempt at militarily conquering the world than Germany and Japan did. We would have failed, but that we didn’t try, and instead came home and had it handed to us because most of the rest of the world wants to be Americans. If they didn’t find our culture attractive, all of the Madison Avenue Marketing Gurus and all of the television shows and all of the movies in creation could not make them want it. Every salesman knows that you can’t sell people something that they don’t want. People want better stuff, and they want more individual, as opposed to governmental, control over their own lives. That they do want it is illustrated by how much American culture they have bought. I’m not certain there is any place in the world where you can’t find something American. Certainly nowhere I’ve ever been, or any of the people I’ve talked to about their travels. From Coca Cola to Hollywood to McDonalds, American stuff is everywhere, and american ideals with them. Indeed, it’s so ubiquitous worldwide that most places are now making American style stuff of their own, and living increasingly American lifestyles. There are even signs that a certain number of less developed countries are imitating the United States so far as to changing the economic pyramid into something pear-shaped.
That they have copied our model is one reason why they have kept up with us, indeed, nearly caught up with us in the case of several Asian countries. They did this – their entrenched powers allowed it or encouraged it – because they could see that they would be overwhelmed if they did not. They saw a more successful, more competitive model, and imitated as much of it as they could make themselves comfortable with. But certain of our ideals, specifically contempt or questioning of authority, the idea that everyone should have the same opportunities, the idea that anyone can come up with worthy ideas, and especially the idea that no one is below being rewarded or above being punished, are very dangerous to those elites, whether wealthy, educated, or religious. They know that these ideas spell doom for their class, and have insulated their societies from them to the extent practical. The more socialist model prevailing in most of europe holds itself out to be superior, but clearly is not competing as well, and their elites can only retaliate by despising us.
One important feature of competitive evolutionary models is that the introduction of one example that competes better forces all of the other members of the system to become more effective, more competitive – or face evolutionary disadvantage. And evolutionary disadvantage, in the long term, is a fancy way of saying extinction. Societies must adapt to changing conditions or they die. The elites ruling in Asia made the choice that they were going to compete on the same level. The elites of Europe, perhaps because they are our parental society, are in denial that their current rules have a lot in common with those made by feudal lords “protecting” their peasants from liberation.
But if we remove the United States, the motivation to compete with us vanishes, along with the american style reforms. In only a few places is it rooted deeply enough that it would survive without us competing with them. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Australia. Eastern Europe and India if they get another generation. Maybe one or two other places. Except for maybe India, all of these are more subject to being overwhelmed from without than we are. The older systems are still strong, and they are practiced in a much larger number of places.
So is the United States worth defending? Yes. Is it worth defending the cause of global freedoms, and global innovation? Absolutely. Is our society worth defending? You bet. Is defending the United States in the War on Terror a good thing for all of the above? There can be no other answer but yes.
Having your Credit Run
As of July 1, 2005, mortgage providers have to have explicit written authorization to run credit.
I am not certain of the political forces that made this bill, and it is still not clear to me whether this extends to non-mortgage credit providers. If it does, this is probably one of the niftiest consumer protection things to come down the pike in a long time. On the other hand, if it’s limited to mortgage providers, then it’s probably a stab at making life difficult for Internet brokerages, which may do business at a remove of thousands of miles.
An Internet broker employee is talking on the phone with a client, not physically in the client’s presence. They can be some of the cheapest and best loan providers out there, if they are so minded (as I keep saying, a far more important concern is how low a provider is willing to go, not how low they can go. Internet brokerages can also be consummate ripoff artists). It becomes a real hardship on their business if they can’t run credit without explicit written permission, whereas it’s not a major issue with a more traditional brokerage or direct lender. A loan quote isn’t real unless you can lock it right now. Your loan can’t be locked without running credit. And I can’t run your credit until I get a signed form that says you give me permission. No big deal if I’m sitting right there. A real pain if I’m in California and the client is in Florida. I’m not even certain facsimile permission (no original signature) is acceptable, as it’s not something that enters into my current business. This means a delay potentially of days while the form gets back to the lender. So life for an ethical Internet broker suddenly gets a lot more difficult, while life for the crooks becomes no harder.
On the other hand, if the requirement for written permission extends to all providers of credit, then it becomes worth the game. Mind you, an adult should be aware of what’s going to happen if they give a social security number to a car dealer, furniture store, or anyone else. I’ve never heard of anyone using it just for liar’s poker (“Oooh, this is a good one – four 8s!”). If you give a merchant your social, then they are going to run your credit. Treat it as a mathematical certainty, because it might as well be.
Each time somebody runs credit, it’s an inquiry – a ding on your credit. Inquiry dings are progressively damaging. They cause your score to go down, each and every time you have an inquiry, and the more inquiries you have, the more each new inquiry drives it down. There used to be a game among mortgage providers until the new rules a couple years ago – see if they could be the last ones to run your credit before it went under a threshold score, and some would run it multiple times if they could. Anybody running after that would be at a disadvantage.
With the new rules that every consumer should get down on their knees and give thanks to the National Association of Mortgage Brokers for getting through, consumers are now actually permitted to shop around for mortgage rates without getting dinged every time their credit is run – provided they run credit under a business code that say’s “inquiry for mortgage.” (So if you are mortgage shopping at a bank or credit union, be sure they run your credit under their mortgage inquiry code, and not a general inquiry code). All of the times it is run within fourteen days by mortgage providers count as exactly one inquiry. This gives consumers the ability to shop as much or more for a mortgage as they would for, say, a toaster oven, without being penalized.
But if the new rules apply to non-mortgage credit grantors also, this is a good thing. Here’s why: Every time I start a loan, I have a set spiel that I go through. “Don’t change anything, credit-wise, even if you think it will help. Don’t buy anything. Don’t charge anything on your credit cards. Make your normal payments – no more, no less, unless you ask me first. And don’t allow anybody to run your credit for any reason. Don’t even let them have your social. Because they will run your credit, I guarantee it.”
On every home loan, one of the last things that will happen before your loan is recorded in official records at the county will be that the lender will run your credit again to make certain nothing has changed. And if anything has changed, you will very likely lose the loan (and the house if it’s a purchase). Even if the escrow company has the money or it’s actually been disbursed, the lender will pull it back. So there is a real need for prospective borrowers to understand that until the final documents are recorded with the county, they shouldn’t so much as breathe differently.
For a certain personality type, being told she can’t shop for curtains and furniture and paint for her new house is nothing short of torture, and so I’ve learned to be very explicit. “It’s okay to look, to talk to the nice salesfolk, and to get an idea of what you want. But don’t actually buy anything. Tell the nice salesman who says he just ‘wants to get a head start on your order’ that your mortgage loan officer said that you’re right on the line, and anybody else runs your credit and drives you under the line the first consequence to the furniture or paint or drapery salesperson will be no order, because they’re likely to cost you the loan.
So while you have a home loan pending, tell the nice salespersons that you’re really protecting them by not giving him your social, because if they run your credit and cost you the loan you’ll have to tell your uncle Bruno, who’s best friends with Tony Soprano, about it. And we all know what happens then.
Back in the real world, things are not usually quite that bleak. But it’s surprising how often people end up with higher rates and higher payments and worse loans because they didn’t understand this one point. Suppose your monthly payment is $50 higher than you thought it would be, in addition to what you spent on the new stuff that caused money to go into that salesman’s pocket. Doesn’t that make you feel all Warm And Tingly towards that salesman? Didn’t think so. And a certain percentage of the time, this new monthly payment you now have because you Bought Something means you Do Not Qualify for the loan. So: No loan. No house (if it’s a purchase). No lower payment (if it’s a refinance). No cash out of your equity (if that’s what you were trying to do). And so now you’ve got this stuff, and no house to put it in. Now you’ve got to tap the vacation or retirement account to pay for it because you’re not getting a refinance on reasonable terms. Not to mention all the times these people run credit and hurt people’s credit scores without real permission when there’s no mortgage loan in the offing. So I can put up with one segment of my industry have a slightly higher bar to jump over if that’s the carrot.
Caveat Emptor
Games Lenders Play (Part IV)
I was approached by these folks a few weeks ago via email.
I attempted to get them to write up the experience themselves (and I would still like you to if you’re reading this), but I wanted to write something about this before I completely forgot about it. This whole exchange is indicative of games loan providers play in order to make money.
I’m going to sketch this out chronological to the extent possible. What happened was Mr. and Ms. A got a postcard in the mail quoting low payments for their loan amount. They thought it looked great, and called the loan provider. The loan provider talked about these great payments on a loan that looked faily real, and quoted an APR of 6.18. He told them that this was a great loan, and compared it to a 5/1 ARM in such a way that that was what they thought they were getting. No worries, because they were going to be transferred by his company in two to three years.
They asked my opinion about another item having to do with the loan, and something about what they said sounded funky to me.
Well, i believe what I’m getting is called a 5/1 ARM. Each month i have the 4 options of minimum payment, interest only payment, 30 yr payment, or 15 yr payment. (payments respectively would be either $A, $B, $C, or $D)
The minimum payment stays the same for every 12 months, then increases by about $90 each subsequent yr. I know minimum is not ideal, but i live in an area with high appreciation, and because of the ridiculous value of property in the area, & the school system in this county, it continues to appreciate regardless of trends elsewhere.
I’m told the loan comes standard with 3 yr prepay. I can pay the points I mentioned to make it a 1 yr, but it doesn’t affect my interest rate coming down. That’s at about 6.18%
Well, the part about property appreciating regardless of trends elsewhere is just plain wishful thinking. There is nowhere that is insulated from economic conditions. Nonetheless, it’s not what we’re talking about here. Does this loan sound like somethink I keep writing about?
Here’s what I sent back:
That particular loan is actually a Negative amortization loan. I explain those here (same link as last paragraph – ed).
They are not wholly without redeeming qualities, but they are something to be done with a trembling hand and much looking over your shoulder. At the current rate, expect $725 to get added to your balance the first month – and rates are rising, so this is likely to accelerate, and your underlying rate is completely variable on a month to month basis. Even if they don’t rise and you make the minimum payments, you will owe approximately $X after two years – an increase of $18,620 in your balance! Will it be an issue if you owe $18,600 more when you go to sell it? I think it likely that the answer is yes, but it’s your call.
A 5/1 is something entirely different. It is a “A Paper” Thirty year loan with the interest rate fixed for the first five years, then adjusting once per year based upon either LIBOR or US Treasury rates, not COFI or MTA. As A paper, there is not an embedded pre-payment penalty. Right now, in California, I have them at about 6.25 no cost no points no prepay, or 6.5 interest only, and truly fixed for five years.
Furthermore, there was another issue with the loan quote:
If I do the math, the first payment gives a principal balance of $X+2000, the second payment gives a principal balance of $X, The third gets $X+500 and the fourth $X+1300. If these are the numbers your loan provider gave you, which of these numbers is correct? Any of them? Unless you’re paying the 1.5 points out of pocket, your loan provider should give you a quote which adds them to the amount you are borrowing. Did they do this, or did they pretend it was going away by magic?
They responded:
oooh. sounding scary. So i left them a mssg asking which it was, a negative amortization loan, or a 5/1 ARM. I also asked for more info as I was sent spreadsheet which is missing some info. I am fwding the spreadsheet if you don’t mind the attachment.
Well the loan provider had named the spreadsheet “2005_Pay_Option_Work_Sheet.xls” Pay Option is one of those “friendly sounding” names for a negative amortization loan. Well, I knew before what kind of scum bucket this loan provider was before I opened it, but doing so was confirmation, good enough to convict in court except that what he did isn’t illegal, only immoral and unethical. Yep, it had all of the characteristics of a negative amortization loan as prepared by the worst kind of financial predator. Three or four payment options, including minimum, interest only, and 30 year amortized? Check. Prepayment penalty if you made any other payments (The so-called “one extra dollar” prepayment penalty I talk about here, which is not necessarily characteristic of negative amortization loans but certainly seems to occur there more than anywhere else). Check. Yearly minimum payment increases of about 7.5 of base minimum payment%? Check. Complete lack of disclosure that if you make the minimum payment your balance increases by hundreds of dollars per month? Check. About a 5 percentage point absolute spread between nominal rate and APR? Check. Complete failure to disclose payment based upon a “nominal” (in name only) rate of 1%? Check. Failure to disclose that the real rate was month to month variable from day one? Check. Failure to disclose that the index it was based on had risen in recent months and that unless said index went back down, the real rate would be rising? Check. Failure to include real and known closing costs in your loan quote? Check. That last is kind of minor as compared to everything else, but I’d be upset in a major way if it was the only thing wrong he did.
I sent Ms. A an email which said, in part:
“Option ARM” is a common, friendly sounding name for what is still a negative amortization loan. Everything about this loan, from the fact that it has a “payment cap” which is unrelated to a rate cap, screams negative amortization loan.
The 5/1 is a different loan provided for comparison, as the sheet tells you, and is a better loan for almost all purposes, as the second column of the comparison tells you. A 3/1 might have a slightly lower rate, or it might not. Ditto any of the 2 or three year subprime variants.
Intro period is telling you the period it is fixed rate for.
MTA loans are based upon a moving average of the treasury rate over the last twelve months. Since they’ve been going up, your real rate is likely to increase as some older and lower rates drop out of the computation in upcoming months.
Pay attention to the two footnotes on the payment options. “deferred interest” is characteristic of negative amortization.
(Name redacted for publication). They are not the only such company, but the translation into real english of their name must be “watch out for our piranha”
These loans are very commonly pushed because most people “buy” loans based upon payment, making them very easy loans to sell because unless you understand the drawbacks, you will think this is the greatest loan since sliced bread. These are up to forty percent of all new loans in the last year in some areas (including here), and are likely to contribute to a crash in housing values soon.
There are sharks and wolves out there, as this illustrates. Why people who would never buy a toaster oven without checking at least two vendors will sign up for a mortgage without shopping around is beyond me, but people do it. This is a trap that can be very hard to avoid unless you know what’s going on, but if you talk to a few loan officers, and and go back and forth, chances become much better that you’ll be saved by one of Jaws’ competitors telling you what’s really going on. Other, competing loan providers deal with this stuff every day. After a very short time, we get to the point where we can recognize it in our sleep. But we can’t alert you to these kind of issues if you don’t give us the chance.
Luckily, these folks gave me the chance.
They were in another state, and so I didn’t get any business out of my good deed, but that’s okay. I got this article. And now, you folks can read about it, and be forewarned.
Caveat Emptor
Debunking The Fallacy of Index Funds
It seems I can’t hardly turn around in the investment world without a paean to Jack Bogle, who preaches the advantage of the index fund.
Mr. Bogle’s reasoning goes something like this: Looking at the world of mutual funds, relatively few funds beat the S&P 500 Index, so why not just buy the whole S&P Index?
This is nothing short of the most successful sales pitch based upon a straw man argument in history.
Index funds are huge. Mr. Bogle’s own original fund is the largest mutual fund, and both of the two largest mutual fund families base their pitches (in large part) upon their large number of Index Funds based upon various indices. That’s how successful the pitch has been.
What Mr. Bogle doesn’t tell you is that Index funds aren’t the Index either.
There’s a bit of Red Herring in the argument also. Index Funds aren’t some ideal investment package that doesn’t have expenses. They may be low (21 basis points per share for the biggest the last time I looked), but they are there. So in an ideal universe, they lose to the index by this amount. Plus they do have the same need managed funds have to hold some cash. Since the market goes up about 72 percent of the time (over the course of historical years), and they lose an amount of gain or loss proportional to their cash holdings, over time they lose more than they gain on this. By comparison, the measurement made of managed funds is after all such inefficiencies.
In other words, the Index Fund sales pitch reduces to “Most of these other finds don’t beat this measurement. Come to us where you’re guaranteed to fall short!” The thrust of their sales pitch is holding themselves out to a a perfect idealization, which in fact they are not.
There are other reasons to avoid Index Funds. The most famous, best known and largest are all built upon the S&P 500 Index. This is a market capitalization based Index. The Fund buys into these companies based upon market capitalization. It should be no surprise to anyone that this means that whatever the largest company in S&P is, it will be several times the size of number 500, so the funds investment in them will be correspondingly weighted, while having zero investment in number 501. This means (because Index funds are such a large portion of the overall market) that Index Funds cause demand for those companies which are a member of this universe to have larger demand than they otherwise would, therefore artificially inflating the share price of those companies somewhat.
Now, one of the reasons people gravitate towards mutual funds is instant diversification of investment. You put in your $1000, and because it’s is in turn invested as a part of a much larger investment pool, you have much more diversification than you would otherwise be able to purchase with that same investment were you to purchase stocks directly. One of the reasons I worked almost exclusively with mutual funds (and mutual fund-like) when I was in the business is that if you want to build a diversified direct stock portfolio in an efficient manner (buying whole, as opposed to odd share lots), it takes about $100,000. This is more than most folks are willing or able to invest in a single shot.
But one of the open secrets of the mutual fund industry is that many, if not most, funds are over-diversified. Their holdings are so diluted that when they pick a winner, their shareholders see comparatively little benefit because they’ve made too many bets. When you bet 100% of your money and the stock doubles, you get 100%. When you bet 1/500th of your money and the stock doubles, you get 0.2%. This dilution effect is directly proportionate to the number of investments (bets) they have made, while the benefits of diversification are only proportionate to the square root of the number of investment holdings they have. In other words, the fund with 400 holdings is sixteen times more dilute than the fund with 25, but only four times as protected by diversification. One of my favorite fund families, in which I myself continue to invest for other reasons which outweigh this, had 432 holdings in its growth fund the last time I got a report. That is way too many. Mathematical models have determined that the optimal number of holdings for a fund is in the range of twenty to thirty, getting good protection of diversification while not suffering from over-dilution of good investments. I am becoming, more and more, a fan of “focus” model funds, where the investment managers are forced to be choosy by limiting the overall number of investments to a certain number of securities.
Index funds typically have way too many funds to qualify for this. Of all the major indices, only the Dow Jones ones have a small enough base to be considered as having a near optimal number of components. I just don’t hear about people wanting to invest in those. 20 Transportation? 15 Utilities? They’re derided as sector investments, and not good ones. 30 Industrials still seems to have some cachet, but by comparison with S&P 500 or even the Russell Indices (1000, 2000, and 3000), the amount invested in Dow Industrials is microscopic. Perhaps because it’s not a “true” index, but is selected by the publishers of the Wall Street Journal, theoretically for the components representation of the entire market.
Index funds are not without their benefits, of which their mindless vanilla nature is probably the greatest. If you want an investment you can just make and not watch and not worry about unless the entire asset class tanks, Index funds are fine (S&P is large cap blend). For market-timers, index funds are unmatched, particularly since their cost of putting the investment in and taking it out tends to be low. But I am not a mindless vanilla investor, and for one step up the mental chain, index funds can be beaten by periodic investment class reallocation. Furthermore, I am an investor, not a market-timer. So any time somebody’s recommendations for investing include index funds, I’ll pass them by.
Caveat Emptor.
Buying off a Prepayment Penalty
Been reading some of your informative tips. I am looking at refinancing and getting a $378000 mortgage. Now in the case of having a 3 yr prepay penalty, vs paying 1.5% in points to make it a 1 yr prepay, am i right in assuming it’s wiser for me to pay the points than accept a three yr prepay when i know I will sell/move within 2 yrs? Any info you can provide would be great. I’m wondering if I’m missing something here.
I think they points would cost me around $5800.
I compute 1.5 points on $378,000 as being approximately $5756.
Here in California, the maximum pre-payment penalty is six months interest, and that is the industry standard nationwide for when there is a pre-payment penalty. A few lenders will pro-rate it, but for the vast majority, they will charge the same penalty on the day before it expires as on day one. This is pure profit, and they’re generally not going to turn down pure profit any more than most people will turn down a bonus. So if your interest rate is 6 percent, you’re going to pay a 3 percent pre-payment penalty if you sell or refinance before the pre-payment penalty expires. For Negative Amortization loans, the pre-payment penalty is based on the real rate, not one percent, of course.
On some loans, the pre-payment penalty is triggered by paying any extra money. One extra dollar and GOTCHA! But probably eighty percent or so give you the option of paying it down a certain amount extra each year, usually 20 percent, without triggering the pre-payment penalty.
Assuming that it is a case of you won’t move in less than one year, this is equivalent to the prepayment penalty on a loan with interest rate of between 3.05% (100 percent prepayment penalty) and 3.81% (80% prepayment penalty). Since even the 1 month LIBOR is a little over 3.8 percent right now, this seems like a cut and dried case of pay the point and a half.
Of course, if there is a possibility that you will need to move in less than one year, paying these 1.5 points could well be a costly exercise in futility. I can’t begin to gauge that risk without more information. But if you’re in any number of professional situations ranging from the military to corporate executive, this is common.
Given that you’re talking about pre-payment penalties, you’re likely in a subprime situation. Subprime has a fairly uniform rate of 1.5 points of cost equals 3/4 of a point on the interest rate. I’m going to assume you’re getting about a 6.25% rate. If you decided to buy it off via rate, you’d be looking at a 7% rate.
Let’s punch in the two loans. $383,750 (balance with 1.5 points) at 6.25% gives you a payment of $2362.81. Running it out 24 months gives you a balance of $374,467. You have spent $56,708 on payments.
378,000 at 7% gives you a payment of $2514.84. Running it out 24 months gives you a balance of $370,043.00, and you’ve spent $60,356 on payments, while paying your balance down $7957.
Now, assume you sell the home for $X at the end of this period. The first loan saves you $3648 in interest. The second loan gives you $4424 more in your pocket in two years. The second loan, with the higher interest rate and higher payment, as opposed to the higher balance, nonetheless saves you $776 as opposed to the loan with the lower interest rate, and also leaves you more money with which to buy your next home, which means lower cost of interest on your next home loan, as well. Of course, this is subject to some pretty significantly naked assumptions as I don’t know anything more about your situation. Furthermore, it assumes that your income is not marginal, and that you would qualify for both loans. It is perfectly possible that you would qualify for the lower payment, and hence the lower rate would be approved, but not be able to qualify for the higher payment associated with the higher rate (The reverse is not the case). Finally, I assumed that because you know you’re going to have to move in two years, you are looking at a two or three year ARM in the first place, as opposed to a longer fixed term.
I hope this helps you. If you have any further questions, please let me know.
Caveat Emptor
Biweekly Mortgage Spam
Sometimes spam makes writing an article all too easy.
Here is a piece of spam I got today because my email at work contains “realestate.com”, with identifying information taken out. This goes to show that the financial ignorance of most mortgage providers is astounding.
Thank you for your interest in the X Broker Program. Our program is designed to help you provide more value added service for your clients, increase your fee income and help you generate more loans. By simply providing a one page custom amortization and a completed one page enrollment form in your loan packages you will achieve a high enrollment ratio. By illustrating the three key benefits of the Bi-Weekly Payment Program for your clients, they will clearly see that your goal is to help them accomplish their financial goals sooner by saving thousands of dollars in interest, paying off their mortgages 5-10 years early and achieving a low effective interest rate. Please find enclosed an example of a custom calculator and our simple one page enrollment form.
Or the client can just make 13/12 of the regular payment, or make an extra payment once per year, and achieve the same result without any cost. This option without cost lets the customer choose to pay however much extra they can afford that month, or pay nothing extra if they’re on a tight budget. As I computed in this article, the fact that you’re making payments more often saves you almost nothing. It’s the fact that you’re making an extra mortgage payment per year that’s saving you all that money.
Getting started is easy. All you have to do is pay a one time setup fee of $99. You will be provided with custom online tools and resources as well as training upon request. To sign up, just go to our online broker enrollment form and complete the required fields, shortly after you will receive an email with your broker code user name and password. Please be sure to save this email. Once you have these instructions you will be able to go to X.com and access your custom calculator and other online resources.
So I (the provider) pay a sign up fee of $99 for an internet driven startup. Cha-ching!
The X program is a great value at $395.00. You earn 300.00 on each enrollment, X retains only 95.00. We also charge a $3.75 per debit fee (emphasis mine). Our customers truly appreciate our one-time only enrollment fee, if the client moves, refinances or the loan gets sold, X will simply take them off the system and put them back on with the new loan information. Most customers prefer to pay the enrollment fee and choose the 3 debit option, where we will take an additional 135.00, 130.00 and 130.00 over the first three debits to comprise our one-time fee. We pay commissions on the 15th of the month for all enrollments on the system the month prior. Once you receive your approved broker email you’ll be able to start signing up clients immediately.
Now we get to the real meat of what’s going on. For me doing the work of signing someone up on the internet, they get $95 to start with, while dangling out a $300 stroke to mortgage providers to betray their clients by getting them to pay for something they could do themselves, with more flexibility, for free.
Then, once this is started, they make $3.75 per transaction, every two weeks, for an automated process that costs them somewhere between $0.25 and $0.50. Great work if you can get it. Three guesses who gets stuck with all the problems if they screw up.
This is one more reason why you want to shop your mortgage around and get multiple opinions. Anybody wants you to pay anything for a biweekly payment program, that is a red flag not to do business with them.
Caveat Emptor