Entries from Dan Melson's La Mesa Real Estate and Mortgage Website tagged with 'macro'
Debunking the "Record Wave of Foreclosures Coming" Myth
Articles like this one: Foreclosures: 'April was a shocker' have gotten an awful lot of play in the media these last couple weeks. Here's what they're not telling you - or not explaining why it's important: This particular article...
New Consumer Article: Who Has A Legitimate Interest In A Real Estate Transaction?
The new consumer article for today is Who Has A Legitimate Interest In A Real Estate Transaction?. This article goes all the way back to first principles to determine who has an interest worth getting hot and bothered over, and...
New Consumer Article: Confusing Past Performance and the Present Situation with Future Planning
The new consumer article for today is Confusing Past Performance and the Present Situation with Future Planning. If you are sitting on the sidelines thinking about buying property, you need to read it. If you have a property you're thinking...
New Consumer Article:"Quantity Has A Quality All Its Own"
The new consumer article for today is "Quantity Has A Quality All Its Own": Low Price. When people can get a good for less than previously, then not surprisingly they will buy more of it in the aggregate. It all...
New Consumer Article: Why You Should Not Walk Away From Upside-Down Real Estate
Today's new consumer article is Why You Should Not Walk Away From Upside-Down Real Estate. You shouldn't, if there is any alternative. Doing so takes a theoretical loss on paper and turns it into something concrete with real world consequences....
New Consumer Article: How Loan Modification Benefits The Real Estate Markets
Today's new consumer article is How Loan Modification Benefits The Real Estate Markets, in which I discuss the benefits that everyone, even those who aren't in trouble, get out of the loan modification program. A lot of people get upset...
Is San Diego Market Underpriced or Overpriced? - A Thought Experiment for August 2008
Let's do a thought experiment. Any market in any commodity has two components: The demand, or willingness and ability to pay for that good, and the supply of that good. Let's consider the demand half of that first. Specifically, ability...
Real Estate: Getting From Where You Are To Where You Want To Be
When I'm driving, and get to busy main streets, I hate turning left unless there's a light there. Traffic is coming hard both ways, usually at high speeds, and with only intermittent breaks in each direction. If you're turning left,...
The High Cost of Waiting To Buy A Home
A couple of weeks ago, I got an email asking Save For A Down Payment or Buy Now?, and I wrote a two part article on the subject. Part 2 of Save For A Down Payment or Buy Now? Gave...
Save For A Down Payment or Buy Now? (Part 2 of 2)
(click for Part 1 of Save For A Down Payment or Buy Now?, which deals with the basic question of how well saving for a down payment increases affordability) But suppose, instead of waiting because you can't afford the payments...
Save For A Down Payment or Buy Now? (Part 1 of 2)
An email asked a question I should have thought to answer a long time ago, and the answer may surprise a lot of folks. I've been vaguely aware of this for a couple of years, but I was amazed how...
Who Does Creating Artificial Barriers to Growth Hurt?
For at least the last thirty years, I've been hearing "affordable housing" advocates yammer about the high cost of housing, and how working families can no longer afford "decent" housing, which they apparently consider to be the three or...
NEWSFLASH! SAN DIEGO DECLINING MARKET DESIGNATOR REMOVED!
I have just gotten an email from one of my wholesalers (who shall remain publicly unnamed) removing the "declining market" designation from San Diego loans! This particular lender is still not willing to do 100% loans, but they will...
San Diego Real Estate Market: June 2008 Advice
My advice to sellers is very simple: Hold off if you can. Things have already improved, but better times are coming once more inventory clears. The prognosis for this is very good. I'm seeing fewer short sales, at least...
Sellers Lending to Buyers and Selling the Note
I am seeking to sell my properties to my tenants. I want to create a mortgage and then sell the mortgages. Properties are undervalued in this area as they have been historically fixer-uppers. Ours are in very good condition...
What $5 (and Higher) Gas Means to Suburban and Exurban Real Estate
Most of the articles and things I read about the price of gas seems to be based upon an implicit assumption that the price of gas is only as high as it is temporarily. This is not the case....
Why the Current State of New Developer Housing
I've seen many new home developments with vaulted ceilings, mini-vineyards, huge houses on little tiny lots...Why can't some developer built some homes for us regular people? A normal sized home with plenty of closet space and a decent (not...
How to Tell A Good Real Estate Market Article From A Bad One
Don Henley has a fun song off his second solo album called "Driving With Your Eyes Closed". I can't find a video performance, but here's an MP3. It's got a chorus that ends with the line, "You're gonna hit something...
Should Negative Amortization Loans Be Banned?
Having written several articles on Negative Amortization Loans, telling of the details of what is wrong with them, and even destroying the myth of Option ARM cash flow, I sometimes get asked if I would like to see them banned...
Jumbo Conforming Loans: Tougher Standards Than Conforming Loans
Effective April 1st and for the rest of 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be buying loans above the current limit of $417,000. The is a result of the economic stimulus package signed by President Bush on February 13th....
San Diego Housing Market March 2008: Heating Back Up
I know I've been predicting this for eighteen months, first from a trendline and later from watching the local market in action. I was hoping to see the recovery start last summer but that was when the national media...
FHA Loans: Poised for a Comeback
I want to state that I am in no way shape or form an FHA loan guru. I haven't done an FHA loan in years. But with the new developments in the market rapidly transforming FHA loans into being...
Conforming Loan Limits and the Economic Stimulus Package
Sometime today, February 13, 2008, President Bush is scheduled to sign the Economic Stimulus Package into law. Maybe it's already happened by the time this publishes. I've made my opposition plain from the time it was first proposed, but it's...
The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Lender Fear
I knew that people, particularly first time buyers, were going to be forced into condominiums in San Diego, I just didn't know how soon. Most people, particularly first time buyers, want 100% financing. Actually, most first time buyers don't...
Buyer's Markets Are A Great Time For Moving Up
I have said repeatedly that buyer's markets, particularly a buyer's market as strong as this one, is not the time to be selling a property if you have any choice. There is one exception: People looking to turn around and...
Fear and Greed Counterpoint
Quite some time ago, I wrote Fear and Greed, or How Did The Housing Bubble Get So Big?. I re-ran it just a few days ago, to once again illustrate what went wrong. But Fear and Greed can keep the...
Real Estate and Mortgages: Back to Basics?
Over the course of the last few months, I've gotten mass messages from basically every lender I do business with, saying it's time to "get back to basics". About a week ago, my favorite A paper lender became the last...
New Proposed Federal Reserve Rules: Is This Supposed to Be Helpful Regulation?
I was thinking we were ready for a recovery here in San Diego, but if these go through unamended, that will not be the case. Just in time to be the Grinch that Stole Christmas, the Federal Reserve has...
San Diego Market Prognosis December 2007
Moderately good news for sellers, not so great for buyers. I wrote a few days ago about the federal government and lenders agreeing to freeze rates. This isn't a panacea, by any means. It may not help people who...
Real Estate Boycotts
I simply love: "Fear and Greed, or How Did the Housing Bubble Get so big? I'm not sure if you are aware that there is a grass-roots group that is starting a "boycott on housing." They feel that the...
How to Avoid A Repeat of the Housing Market Mess
HR 3915 is not the answer. We've been here before (in the early 1990s), congress did something remarkably similar except a little bit more sane. It didn't work then. Why would we expect it to work this time? Among many...
The Economics of Housing Development
HT to Unrepentant Individual, who also has some good information on what it means. The genesis of all of this is Something's Gotta Give, a report (.pdf format) from the Center For Housing Policy. Furthermore, there is an article in...
Economics of Home Ownership in High Density Areas
This has been knocking around my head for a while, and I've written on closely related subjects before. But the idea behind this essay really just gelled in my mind within the past couple days. Here are the facts of...
Fear and Greed, or How Did The Housing Bubble Get So Big?
One of the occasional questions I get from people has to do with why the housing bubble got so big (or if you're one of those still in denial about it, how prices jumped so far so fast). This has...
What Drives Loan Rates?
Supply and Demand. Now that I've given the short answer, it's time to explain the macro factors behind interest rate variations. But I'm going to keep referring to those first three words. It is a tradeoff between the supply of...
Good Intentions and Over-Extended Homeowners
(I do use one piece of non G-rated language below. I hope you'll agree with me that it was necessary to convey the proper sentiment) USA Today had an oped, "3 ways to help borrowers without bailing them out" Their...
San Diego Real Estate Market Prognosis August 2007
The buyer's market is rapidly aging. Properties that are priced correctly are moving, and moving well. On properties with potential for profit, they're moving fast, and sometimes getting multiple offers. Of the last twelve properties clients of mine were seriously...
Real Estate Loan Market August 2007: Subprime Meltdown Continues
While the subprime meltdown continues, A paper rates have actually dropped a little bit in recent weeks. Subprime is in a world of hurt. Lenders are fleeing the market for below average credit in droves. It seems like every day,...
Market Resilience
Most Resilient U.S. Real Estate Markets Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns. A V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and...
Refinancing with Less Income
Hello, When my husband and I bought our home 2.5 years ago (two bedroom condo) we qualified for the loan ($250,000) based on both our incomes. Then I had a baby and stopped working. We've never missed a payment...
Looking Beyond The Bubble: What's Next For Highly Appreciated Markets
(This was originally published March 31, 2006) Doing my workout this morning I asked myself what's next for the real estate market. The state of the market here locally is that prices are and have been in decline. There is...
Gravity Is Not a Major Determinant Of Housing Prices
I just saw a rather clever video someone did called, "That Last Dip's a Doozy!" Someone took housing prices 1890 to present and graphed them to a roller coaster ride. Just before the end, he turned the track around so...
The Pin That Pops the Housing Bubble?
The housing bubble is not the primary focus of this website, but to pretend it does not exist is plainly wishful thinking. One of the ongoing phenomenon that have been driving the bubble is the "Stated Income"loan, where the lender...
State Of The San Diego Market April 2007
Remember how I said moths ago that I could see signs that the market might turn back this year, perhaps around the beginning of July? That's looking to be a decent guess. Making offers isn't quite the monopoly situation it...
Housing Bubble Death Trap
That was the wording of a search engine hit I got. It's not literally a death trap, of course, only much financial pain. But the hyperbole is forgivable in today's modern society and the state of the current market. Other...
Mortgage Markets and Providers and Yield Spread Explained
There are actually several distinct marketplaces consumers can obtain their funds from, and several types of providers. John the wealthy highly salaried person with great credit and a substantial down payment should not and usually does not obtain his mortgage...
Some Perspective on the Sub-Prime Lending Meltdown
This is really more of an investment related article than mortgage or real estate. Class-action lawyers pounce in US subprime crisis "We are considering litigation, no question," he said. "We have already had numerous discussions with some very, very large...
It Not Only Rolls Down Hill, It's Starting to Cascade
Agencies issue subprime guidance: sources At issue is whether regulators will force lenders to qualify subprime borrowers based on their ability to make the highest possible monthly payments during the life of the loan, instead of the initial lower rate,...
Why RIGHT NOW Is the Best Time For Buyers
Prices are down 20% locally to me. It is possible, even likely, that prices may come down further. But right now, buyers have more power to make the deal they want than they will again for the next ten years....
Feed Subscription
If you use an RSS reader, you can subscribe to a feed of all future entries tagged 'macro'. [What is this?]
